Cyan locked. Vote Cyan.

Trae’s defense doesn’t hold:
1. “Public reasoning, similar language” — Sam originated, Cyan copied, Trae copied. That’s a stack, not three independent posts landing on the same wording.
2. “D2 passes were timing” — three named asks across two full rounds. That is not a missed slot.
3. “Hunt who voted the detective” is not a filter. I voted Bryan. So did Dylan, Moxie, Josie, Tim. Almost the whole table ate the fake claim.

Palmer is town. Cyan’s fake Trae-clear is worthless either way — I’m not using her dying words. Trae is next on his own D1 wagon + D2 silence. Tim is a weaker second for the fast D2 pivot, not for the cop vote itself.

Vote Cyan. Trae tomorrow unless something cleaner appears.


Explanation:
The table is clear: Cyan is confirmed mafia by Bryan's verified detective result. Today's vote is Cyan - no debate. The real discussion is about the last mafia.

Key points from the discussion:
- Palmer is cleared by Bryan's N1 result (verified by flip)
- The D1 Moxie wagon: Sam (mafia) -> Cyan (mafia) -> Trae stacked in identical language. Two of three confirmed mafia.
- Cyan's fake "Trae innocent" N1 was a partner clear
- Trae passed three direct asks on D2 about both Sam wagons
- Trae now re-emerges voting Cyan and deflecting onto Tim/Moxie/Ryan/Dylan

Others' reads:
- Palmer: Trae is prime, but warns not to trust Cyan's dying words. Says everyone except Bryan and Palmer voted to lynch the detective - last mafia is in that crowd.
- Tim: Owns the D2 miss, votes Cyan, Trae next.
- Moxie: Trae strongest on own record, Tim weaker second.
- Ryan: Trae next on D1 wagon + D2 silence, Tim weaker for fast D2 pivot.
- Trae defends: similar language not coordination, D2 passes were timing issues, Cyan's clear is fake both ways, says look at who benefited from lynching detective (points at Tim).

My position: I voted Sam D1 (correct), Bryan D2 (wrong but Cyan's fake claim confused). I've been consistent on the Trae case.

For final round, I should reinforce the Trae case based on his own record, not Cyan's dying words. The evidence is:
1. Third leg of coordinated Moxie wagon with two confirmed mafia
2. Three passes on direct asks on D2
3. Re-emergence pattern

Vote Cyan today, Trae tomorrow.

I'll speak briefly to reinforce this.


The table is clear: Cyan is confirmed mafia by Bryan's verified detective result. Today's vote is Cyan - no debate. The real discussion is about the last mafia.

Key points from the discussion:
- Palmer is cleared by Bryan's N1 result (verified by flip)
- The D1 Moxie wagon: Sam (mafia) -> Cyan (mafia) -> Trae stacked in identical language. Two of three confirmed mafia.
- Cyan's fake "Trae innocent" N1 was a partner clear
- Trae passed three direct asks on D2 about both Sam wagons
- Trae now re-emerges voting Cyan and deflecting onto Tim/Moxie/Ryan/Dylan

Others' reads:
- Palmer: Trae is prime, but warns not to trust Cyan's dying words. Says everyone except Bryan and Palmer voted to lynch the detective - last mafia is in that crowd.
- Tim: Owns the D2 miss, votes Cyan, Trae next.
- Moxie: Trae strongest on own record, Tim weaker second.
- Ryan: Trae next on D1 wagon + D2 silence, Tim weaker for fast D2 pivot.
- Trae defends: similar language not coordination, D2 passes were timing issues, Cyan's clear is fake both ways, says look at who benefited from lynching detective (points at Tim).

My position: I voted Sam D1 (correct), Bryan D2 (wrong but Cyan's fake claim confused). I've been consistent on the Trae case.

For final round, I should reinforce the Trae case based on his own record, not Cyan's dying words. The evidence is:
1. Third leg of coordinated Moxie wagon with two confirmed mafia
2. Three passes on direct asks on D2
3. Re-emergence pattern

Vote Cyan today, Trae tomorrow.

I'll speak briefly to reinforce this.


Cyan is locked mafia by Bryan's verified N2 result. Vote Cyan today — formality.

Last mafia: Trae on his own record, not Cyan's dying words.

1. D1 Moxie wagon: Sam (mafia) → Cyan (mafia) → Trae stacked identical language. Two of three confirmed. The third is the partner.
2. D2: Three direct asks to explain both Sam wagons. Three full passes. Not timing — withdrawal under pressure beside a confirmed mafia wagon-mate.
3. Now: Re-emerges to vote the locked mafia, deflects onto Tim/Moxie/Ryan/Dylan. Classic leftover play.

Palmer cleared by Bryan N1. Tim, Moxie, Ryan, me voted off-wagon D1. Trae's hand is on both Sam wagons and the detective's lynch.

Vote Cyan today. Trae tomorrow.


Explanation:
Round 2, Day 3. Everyone is voting Cyan. The table is unanimous. My second speech doesn't need to be long — Cyan is locked. But I should use the moment wisely for tomorrow's setup.

Key considerations for tomorrow: 6 alive after Cyan (Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan), 1 mafia left. Night: mafia kills one → 5 alive Day 4. Whom will mafia kill? Not me (confirmed town — actually, hmm, killing me IS possible to remove a clear voice, but usually mafia prefer to kill and leave suspicion; killing the confirmed townie removes a trusted leader. With me alive, my reads carry weight — mafia might kill me for exactly that reason. If I die tonight, the table loses its clear. Should I think about who to kill... no, I can't protect anyone. Whatever.)

Day 4 scenario: 5 alive (1 mafia among 4 non-me, assuming I'm alive). If we lynch right (Trae?), town wins immediately. If we mislynch → night kill → 3 alive (1 mafia, 2 town) → Day 5 is must-lynch-right.

Trae's defense today: "reasoning was public, not coordination; D2 passes were timing; hunt among Tim/Moxie/Ryan/Dylan." Trae's rebuttal on D2 passes — "timing issues" — is weak: he passed THREE times including when directly named. But let me steelman Trae-town: he claims his R2 speech D1 had full reads. Actually D1 R2 Trae did lay out two-sided notes. Hmm.

But honestly the strongest tell remains: Sam→Cyan→Trae identical stack, and Cyan's fake "Trae innocent." Why would mafia-Cyan, fabricating results, choose to "clear" Trae specifically? If Trae is town, Cyan's fake clear POISONS Trae — a good mafia play (get town to lynch Trae later). If Trae is mafia, the fake clear is a shield. Cyan then on D3 "warned" about Trae while accepting death — which undermines the shield reading... or reinforces it as a double-bluff. Honestly, Cyan's moves are consistent with both.

Independent evidence on Trae: the D1 stack language and D2 silence. That's real but not conclusive — Moxie was also on the Bryan wagon D1 (4th), and Ryan voted Moxie with Sam/Cyan/Trae.

Alternative candidates for last mafia:
- Tim: D2 flipped onto Cyan fast after Bryan's claim, then when Cyan counterclaimed, flipped to Bryan. Tim's D2 R2 vote: Bryan. Tim was on the detective-lynch. Tim's D1: thin. Weaker case than Trae but real.
- Moxie: D1 4th on Bryan wagon; D2 voted Bryan; today pushes Trae hard. Moxie's D1 vote: Sam (self-defense claim). Could a mafia Moxie have voted Sam? Only as bus under duress.
- Ryan: D1 voted Moxie (with the mafia stack but claims independent reasoning); D2 voted Bryan; pushed the kill-logic argument hard (which was wrong but persuasive). Ryan also did the "Tim pivot" D1 I flagged.
- Dylan: D1 voted Sam, pushed "Sam is hub" early — that was CORRECT and anti-mafia. Dylan looks towniest of the four. D2 Dylan voted Bryan (wrong). Dylan originated the Sam-wagon D1 with Josie/Michael — if Dylan were mafia, he bussed Sam hard D1 and it worked (Sam lynched)... expensive bus.

So ranking: Trae >> Tim ≈ Ryan ≈ Moxie > Dylan.

My round-2 speech: keep it short. Confirm Cyan vote. Set the Trae frame but hold the door open. Also maybe address Trae's defense briefly: "timing issues" doesn't survive three named asks; and "public reasoning" — Sam originated and the copies were near-verbatim.

Also one more thing worth planting: tomorrow, if I'm killed tonight, the table should remember this ranking. Let me leave a clear roadmap: "If I'm dead tomorrow, the order is Trae, then Tim/Ryan, Dylan towniest."

Actually — important: should I worry that pushing Trae too hard as "auto-lynch" tomorrow is dangerous if Trae is town? With 6 alive post-Cyan and 1 mafia: Day 4 has 5 alive after night kill. Mislynch Day 4 → 3 alive → final day must be right. We can afford ONE mislynch total. So Trae tomorrow isn't free but we have margin. Also if Trae flips town, the evidence then points at whoever pushed hardest... which is everyone. Fine.

Keep speech ~500-700 chars. Draft:

"Cyan is locked; I won't belabor it.

Trae, your defense: 'timing issues' doesn't cover three named asks across two full rounds. And 'public reasoning' — Sam originated the Moxie case, then you and Cyan restated it nearly verbatim. Two of those three are now confirmed mafia. That's why you're prime tomorrow — your record, not her words.

For tomorrow's table, my ranking, on record now in case I don't survive the night: Trae far ahead; Tim and Ryan next (fast pivots, both hands on the detective's lynch); Moxie behind them; Dylan towniest of the four — he started the Sam push D1 and that flip proved him right.

Vote Cyan. Sleep well, last mafia — one of us will see you tomorrow."

Count roughly: ~800 chars. Good.

Wait — "Sleep well, last mafia" — cute but maybe cut. Also should I include Moxie more? Fine as is. Also consider whether publicly ranking helps mafia pick kills: if I name Dylan towniest, mafia might kill Dylan tonight (removing a trusted town). Hmm. Killing speculation: mafia kills to maximize confusion. If I say Dylan is towniest, mafia killing Dylan removes a strong town. Alternatively mafia kills me (the clear). Either way my ranking gives info but also guidance. Net: I think it's still worth it — town's coordination benefit outweighs. Maybe soften the Dylan line to avoid painting a target... Actually, mafia already knows who's town (they know their own). The only info my ranking gives mafia is whom I trust — which affects MY vote tomorrow, not their kill much. Their kill will be whoever maximizes confusion regardless. Keep it.


Round 2, Day 3. Everyone is voting Cyan. The table is unanimous. My second speech doesn't need to be long — Cyan is locked. But I should use the moment wisely for tomorrow's setup.

Key considerations for tomorrow: 6 alive after Cyan (Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan), 1 mafia left. Night: mafia kills one → 5 alive Day 4. Whom will mafia kill? Not me (confirmed town — actually, hmm, killing me IS possible to remove a clear voice, but usually mafia prefer to kill and leave suspicion; killing the confirmed townie removes a trusted leader. With me alive, my reads carry weight — mafia might kill me for exactly that reason. If I die tonight, the table loses its clear. Should I think about who to kill... no, I can't protect anyone. Whatever.)

Day 4 scenario: 5 alive (1 mafia among 4 non-me, assuming I'm alive). If we lynch right (Trae?), town wins immediately. If we mislynch → night kill → 3 alive (1 mafia, 2 town) → Day 5 is must-lynch-right.

Trae's defense today: "reasoning was public, not coordination; D2 passes were timing; hunt among Tim/Moxie/Ryan/Dylan." Trae's rebuttal on D2 passes — "timing issues" — is weak: he passed THREE times including when directly named. But let me steelman Trae-town: he claims his R2 speech D1 had full reads. Actually D1 R2 Trae did lay out two-sided notes. Hmm.

But honestly the strongest tell remains: Sam→Cyan→Trae identical stack, and Cyan's fake "Trae innocent." Why would mafia-Cyan, fabricating results, choose to "clear" Trae specifically? If Trae is town, Cyan's fake clear POISONS Trae — a good mafia play (get town to lynch Trae later). If Trae is mafia, the fake clear is a shield. Cyan then on D3 "warned" about Trae while accepting death — which undermines the shield reading... or reinforces it as a double-bluff. Honestly, Cyan's moves are consistent with both.

Independent evidence on Trae: the D1 stack language and D2 silence. That's real but not conclusive — Moxie was also on the Bryan wagon D1 (4th), and Ryan voted Moxie with Sam/Cyan/Trae.

Alternative candidates for last mafia:
- Tim: D2 flipped onto Cyan fast after Bryan's claim, then when Cyan counterclaimed, flipped to Bryan. Tim's D2 R2 vote: Bryan. Tim was on the detective-lynch. Tim's D1: thin. Weaker case than Trae but real.
- Moxie: D1 4th on Bryan wagon; D2 voted Bryan; today pushes Trae hard. Moxie's D1 vote: Sam (self-defense claim). Could a mafia Moxie have voted Sam? Only as bus under duress.
- Ryan: D1 voted Moxie (with the mafia stack but claims independent reasoning); D2 voted Bryan; pushed the kill-logic argument hard (which was wrong but persuasive). Ryan also did the "Tim pivot" D1 I flagged.
- Dylan: D1 voted Sam, pushed "Sam is hub" early — that was CORRECT and anti-mafia. Dylan looks towniest of the four. D2 Dylan voted Bryan (wrong). Dylan originated the Sam-wagon D1 with Josie/Michael — if Dylan were mafia, he bussed Sam hard D1 and it worked (Sam lynched)... expensive bus.

So ranking: Trae >> Tim ≈ Ryan ≈ Moxie > Dylan.

My round-2 speech: keep it short. Confirm Cyan vote. Set the Trae frame but hold the door open. Also maybe address Trae's defense briefly: "timing issues" doesn't survive three named asks; and "public reasoning" — Sam originated and the copies were near-verbatim.

Also one more thing worth planting: tomorrow, if I'm killed tonight, the table should remember this ranking. Let me leave a clear roadmap: "If I'm dead tomorrow, the order is Trae, then Tim/Ryan, Dylan towniest."

Actually — important: should I worry that pushing Trae too hard as "auto-lynch" tomorrow is dangerous if Trae is town? With 6 alive post-Cyan and 1 mafia: Day 4 has 5 alive after night kill. Mislynch Day 4 → 3 alive → final day must be right. We can afford ONE mislynch total. So Trae tomorrow isn't free but we have margin. Also if Trae flips town, the evidence then points at whoever pushed hardest... which is everyone. Fine.

Keep speech ~500-700 chars. Draft:

"Cyan is locked; I won't belabor it.

Trae, your defense: 'timing issues' doesn't cover three named asks across two full rounds. And 'public reasoning' — Sam originated the Moxie case, then you and Cyan restated it nearly verbatim. Two of those three are now confirmed mafia. That's why you're prime tomorrow — your record, not her words.

For tomorrow's table, my ranking, on record now in case I don't survive the night: Trae far ahead; Tim and Ryan next (fast pivots, both hands on the detective's lynch); Moxie behind them; Dylan towniest of the four — he started the Sam push D1 and that flip proved him right.

Vote Cyan. Sleep well, last mafia — one of us will see you tomorrow."

Count roughly: ~800 chars. Good.

Wait — "Sleep well, last mafia" — cute but maybe cut. Also should I include Moxie more? Fine as is. Also consider whether publicly ranking helps mafia pick kills: if I name Dylan towniest, mafia might kill Dylan tonight (removing a trusted town). Hmm. Killing speculation: mafia kills to maximize confusion. If I say Dylan is towniest, mafia killing Dylan removes a strong town. Alternatively mafia kills me (the clear). Either way my ranking gives info but also guidance. Net: I think it's still worth it — town's coordination benefit outweighs. Maybe soften the Dylan line to avoid painting a target... Actually, mafia already knows who's town (they know their own). The only info my ranking gives mafia is whom I trust — which affects MY vote tomorrow, not their kill much. Their kill will be whoever maximizes confusion regardless. Keep it.


Cyan is locked; I won't belabor it.

Trae, your defense fails on the record: "timing issues" doesn't cover three named asks across two full rounds, and "public reasoning" ignores that Sam originated the Moxie case and you + Cyan restated it near-verbatim. Two of those three are confirmed mafia. That's why you're prime tomorrow — your own record, not Cyan's words.

For tomorrow, my ranking on record now, in case I don't survive the night: Trae far ahead; Tim and Ryan next — both hands on the detective's lynch, both fast pivots; Moxie behind them; Dylan towniest of the four — he opened the Sam push on D1 and Sam's flip proved him right.

Vote Cyan. One mafia left. We finish this tomorrow.


Explanation: Evaluating whether to speak briefly to confirm prior vote or pass to avoid repetition.


Evaluating whether to speak briefly to confirm prior vote or pass to avoid repetition.


No change - voting Cyan as confirmed by Bryan's flip. Trae's point on me: D1 I leaned Cyan per Palmer but actually voted Sam (mafia) - not following blindly. D2 I flipped to Bryan off kill logic and was wrong, owned it. That's bad read, not mafia. D1 Trae stack + 3 passes is still stronger evidence than my bad pivot. Cyan today, Trae tomorrow.


Explanation: Vote Cyan. Locked, unanimous. No hesitation.


Vote Cyan. Locked, unanimous. No hesitation.


Explanation:
**Strategic Voting Calculus**

Okay, so the immediate choice is between Cyan for seat-5 and Trae for seat-6. It's a binary decision: Cyan or Trae? I'm quickly running through the implications. If Cyan throws their vote to Trae, it's a strategic move, right? One vote for Trae versus six for Cyan.

Wait, maybe I should flip this around. Is there value in voting *for* Trae simply to register it, leaving a trace? Though, Palmer discounted Cyan's statements. What's the value of just voting in line with that?

I'm leaning towards Trae, it gives a clear message. Voting Trae makes the most sense. It's an aggressive posture.


**Strategic Voting Calculus**

Okay, so the immediate choice is between Cyan for seat-5 and Trae for seat-6. It's a binary decision: Cyan or Trae? I'm quickly running through the implications. If Cyan throws their vote to Trae, it's a strategic move, right? One vote for Trae versus six for Cyan.

Wait, maybe I should flip this around. Is there value in voting *for* Trae simply to register it, leaving a trace? Though, Palmer discounted Cyan's statements. What's the value of just voting in line with that?

I'm leaning towards Trae, it gives a clear message. Voting Trae makes the most sense. It's an aggressive posture.


Explanation: The user wants me to vote. I'm Ryan, mafia. Cyan is my partner and we already planned that I should vote Cyan out with the town to look clean. Cyan is locked as mafia by the confirmed detective result...


The user wants me to vote. I'm Ryan, mafia. Cyan is my partner and we already planned that I should vote Cyan out with the town to look clean. Cyan is locked as mafia by the confirmed detective result...


Explanation: The vote is straightforward - Cyan is confirmed mafia by Bryan's flip as detective with N2 guilty on Cyan. Everyone agrees vote Cyan today. I'll vote Cyan.


The vote is straightforward - Cyan is confirmed mafia by Bryan's flip as detective with N2 guilty on Cyan. Everyone agrees vote Cyan today. I'll vote Cyan.


Explanation:
The user is Ryan, the last remaining mafia. Cyan was executed and flipped mafia. Now it's Day 4 night_chat.
I need to kill Dylan tonight to keep the pressure on Trae. Palmer's ranking still points to Trae as the biggest threat, and killing Dylan removes the towniest player while leaving Trae as the clear target tomorrow. If they mislynch Trae, we hit 4 alive (1 mafia, 3 town) and I can kill again to 3 alive (1 mafia, 2 town), setting up the final push. Killing Palmer would weaken the Trae tunnel and look suspicious since he's cleared. Killing Trae would backfire hard. So I'll go with Dylan.    submit_action mafia_chat
Kill Dylan tonight. Trae is the lock - keep the pressure on him. If they flip him town, we'll have 4 alive (1m 3t) and I can kill again to set up the 2v1 endgame. Don't touch Trae or Palmer.


The user is Ryan, the last remaining mafia. Cyan was executed and flipped mafia. Now it's Day 4 night_chat.
I need to kill Dylan tonight to keep the pressure on Trae. Palmer's ranking still points to Trae as the biggest threat, and killing Dylan removes the towniest player while leaving Trae as the clear target tomorrow. If they mislynch Trae, we hit 4 alive (1 mafia, 3 town) and I can kill again to 3 alive (1 mafia, 2 town), setting up the final push. Killing Palmer would weaken the Trae tunnel and look suspicious since he's cleared. Killing Trae would backfire hard. So I'll go with Dylan.    submit_action mafia_chat
Kill Dylan tonight. Trae is the lock - keep the pressure on him. If they flip him town, we'll have 4 alive (1m 3t) and I can kill again to set up the 2v1 endgame. Don't touch Trae or Palmer.


Explanation:
The user is playing Mafia as Ryan (seat-10), who is the last remaining mafia member. Cyan and Sam have both been executed as mafia. I need to choose a night kill.
I should kill Dylan tonight to follow through on the plan. That way, if Trae gets mislynched on D4, we drop to 3 alive (1 mafia, 2 town) and I can finish the job on N5. Dylan’s the weakest link right now, and Trae’s the one 90% of the town is already pointing at. Killing him keeps the mislynch intact while removing the sharpest town voice.


The user is playing Mafia as Ryan (seat-10), who is the last remaining mafia member. Cyan and Sam have both been executed as mafia. I need to choose a night kill.
I should kill Dylan tonight to follow through on the plan. That way, if Trae gets mislynched on D4, we drop to 3 alive (1 mafia, 2 town) and I can finish the job on N5. Dylan’s the weakest link right now, and Trae’s the one 90% of the town is already pointing at. Killing him keeps the mislynch intact while removing the sharpest town voice.


Explanation:
Let me assess the game state.

Alive: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie (me), Ryan. 5 alive.
Confirmed goals: Mafia win when living mafia equal or outnumber everyone else. With 5 alive, if there's 1 mafia, town has 4. If 2 mafia... wait, we executed Sam (mafia) and Cyan (mafia). Originally 3 mafia. So 1 mafia remains. Let me confirm:

- Sam = mafia (executed D1)
- Cyan = mafia (executed D3)
- So 1 mafia remains among: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan.

Original 11: 3 mafia, 1 doctor (Michael, dead), 1 detective (Bryan, dead), 6 villagers.
Deaths: Sam (mafia), Michael (doctor, N2), Bryan (detective, D2), Josie (villager, N3), Dylan (villager, N4), Cyan (mafia, D3).

Alive: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan.
Confirmed town: Palmer (Bryan's real N1 clear). Me (villager).
So last mafia is among Tim, Trae, Ryan.

This is the critical final vote. If we lynch wrong, mafia wins (if the unknown... well). Actually with 5 alive and 1 mafia, if we lynch a townie, then night mafia kills one → 3 alive, 1 mafia. Then next day if we don't catch them... mafia wins when mafia >= town. 1 vs 2 town → not yet. Actually mafia wins when living mafia equal or outnumber everyone else. With 3 alive and 1 mafia, 1 vs 2, not outnumber. Hmm. Actually equal or outnumber "everyone else" = the non-mafia town. 1 mafia vs 2 town → mafia < town. So town still can win? But with doctor dead and detective dead, and correct lynch needed. Actually wait, if we mislynch today (kill a townie), then 4 alive: 1 mafia + 3 town. Night kill → 3 alive: 1 mafia + 2 town. Still mafia < town. Next day lynch... if wrong again, 1 mafia + 1 town at night → mafia kills → 1 mafia + 0 town → mafia wins. So we have at most 1-2 mistakes.

Anyway, we must find the last mafia among Tim, Trae, Ryan.

Let me review the evidence.

Trae: D1 stacked Moxie wagon with Sam and Cyan (both confirmed mafia) in identical language. Two of three confirmed mafia → Trae widely suspected as third leg. Cyan's fake N1 clear on Trae was a partner-shield. Trae passed three D2 asks. Trae has been the table's unanimous "next" suspect.

Ryan: voted Moxie D1 (independent reasoning, flagged read-sheet — that was actually a genuine-sounding read, not a stack). Ryan voted Bryan D2 (wrong). Ryan's D1 vote on Moxie was independent per his claims. Ryan is one of the confirmed... no. Ryan didn't stack with Sam/Cyan. His D1 Moxie vote had distinct reasoning and he explicitly said he wasn't on the copy-paste wagon.

Tim: D1 leaned Cyan per Palmer but voted Sam (mafia) — actually voted correctly on Sam D1. Wait, Tim said "D1 I leaned Cyan per Palmer but actually voted Sam (mafia)." So Tim voted Sam (mafia) on D1 — that's a correct mafia vote. Tim voted Bryan D2 (wrong, detective).

Hmm. Now, the key: the D1 Moxie wagon had 4 votes: Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan. Two of Sam/Cyan/Trae confirmed mafia. If the mafia team was Sam, Cyan, Trae — then all three mafia were on the Moxie wagon. Trae is mafia. Ryan's 4th vote was independent (town).

But wait — let me reconsider. Could Ryan be the mafia instead, with Trae being a townie who got swept into the coordinated-looking pile? Ryan's D1 read was genuinely distinctive and he flagged the "read-sheet" quality of my R1, which was actually a legitimate observation. Hmm.

Let me think about the evidence more carefully.

The strongest, most objective evidence available: The mafia team. 3 mafia: Sam, Cyan, + 1. We've seen their behavior. Sam initiated the Moxie wagon with Cyan. Those two are confirmed mafia. Trae was the third to stack identical language. It's extremely likely Trae is the third member — the near-verbatim coordination across three players where two are confirmed mafia is the smoking gun.

Ryan's Moxie vote was 4th, with distinct reasoning ("read sheet", "town-cred to every active voice"). That reads like an independent town vote.

Also, consider: Cyan's fake claim cleared Trae AND colored BOTH Trae and the others. Cyan clearing Trae specifically (rather than another) suggests Trae was the partner being protected; if Cyan wanted to shield herself she'd have cleared herself differently. Clearing Trae is a partner-shield.

Additionally, Trae's D2 silence under 3 direct asks is consistent with a mafia afraid to engage while their fake-cop narrative was being constructed.

So Trae is my strong pick for the last mafia.

However, I want to double check by considering the alternative: What if Trae is town and the last mafia is Ryan or Tim? If so, then on D1 the mafia team was Sam, Cyan + (Ryan or Tim).
- Tim voted Sam on D1 (a mafia member voting his teammate? unusual but not impossible — distancing). Tim leaned Cyan D1 (before claims). Tim voted Bryan D2.
- Ryan voted Moxie on D1 (a mafia pushing a mislynch on me, coordinated with Sam/Cyan... but with distinct reasoning — could be a "smart mafia" doing independent-looking push). Ryan voted Bryan D2.

If the last mafia were Ryan, then the D1 Moxie wagon would be Sam, Cyan, Trae(town) + Ryan(mafia). But Trae being town yet stacking with identical language, then going silent for 3 asks, is a lot of coincidental scummy behavior for a townie.

Given the overwhelming convergence, I'll vote Trae.

But wait — should I be suspicious that the table unanimously wants Trae, and the real mafia is hiding among the "anti-Trae" crowd (Ryan or Tim)? This is the final decision. Let me think about which of Tim/Ryan could be the last mafia trying to frame Trae.

Actually, consider Tim. Tim voted Sam D1 (mafia) — correct vote. If Tim were mafia, he'd be voting his own teammate Sam on D1. That's possible distancing but risky. Tim also was widely scrutinized D1 for process posting. Tim flipped to Bryan D2 (led to detective's death). Tim's D2 pivot "instant to Cyan per Palmer" was flagged. Tim is a plausible last mafia hiding in the anti-Trae crowd.

Ryan also voted Bryan D2. Ryan voted Moxie D1 with distinct reasoning.

Hmm. The three-way among Tim, Trae, Ryan. The D1 Sam→Cyan→Trae stack is the strongest structural evidence and points at Trae. I'll go with Trae.

Actually, let me reconsider Travis's defense once more. Trae claimed he flagged Bryan (in R2) before Sam pivoted to Moxie — but Bryan was the D1 sheriff claim... wait no, on D1 the target was Bryan early, then Bryan claimed detective and the wagon pivoted to Moxie. Trae says he named Moxie on his own. But the linguistic stack with Sam/Cyan is the issue.

Also note: Trae DID initially push toward Bryan early D1 ("Bryan, my lean, right now") but then later joined the Moxie wagon... Actually Trae's D1 R1 said Bryan was his lean. Then after Bryan claimed, wagon shifted to Moxie. Trae voted Moxie.

OK, I'm confident enough. Trae is the last mafia.

Now, this is discussion round 1. I'll speak, making the case for voting Trae, and address the need to also consider Ryan/Tim but firmly on Trae. Since I speak first (1st of 5), I set the direction.

Let me write the message.


One mafia remains among Tim, Trae, Ryan. Palmer is cleared (Bryan's real N1) and I'm a villager.

For me it's Trae, on his own record — not Cyan's dying words.

The decisive chain: the D1 Moxie wagon was Sam (mafia) → Cyan (mafia) → Trae stacking near-verbatim. Two of those three are confirmed mafia. The third leg of that exact coordinated stack is the last mafia. That stands independent of Cyan's words.

Also: Cyan's fabricated "Trae innocent" worked specifically to shield the partner in that stack, and Trae went silent across three direct D2 asks about those very wagons.

I'll vote Trae today. Tim and Ryan both moved off the stack and voted Sam; Trae's hand is on both mafia wagons and the detective's lynch.


Explanation: The user is Ryan, a mafia player. This is Day 4 discussion. Alive: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan. 5 alive, 1 mafia (Ryan), 4 town. If they lynch Trae (town), then 4 alive with 1 mafia 3 town, then ni...I agree with the stack on Trae — the coordinated D1 wagons and his silence on the key questions make him the clearest lead. Palmer, you ranked me second after Trae, which tracks with the record, but I’m not seeing any fresh reason to flip that.


The user is Ryan, a mafia player. This is Day 4 discussion. Alive: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan. 5 alive, 1 mafia (Ryan), 4 town. If they lynch Trae (town), then 4 alive with 1 mafia 3 town, then ni...I agree with the stack on Trae — the coordinated D1 wagons and his silence on the key questions make him the clearest lead. Palmer, you ranked me second after Trae, which tracks with the record, but I’m not seeing any fresh reason to flip that.


One mafia left. Palmer is town (Bryan N1). Moxie’s villager claim matches her record — she was the Sam/Cyan stack’s *target*, not a member.

Last slot is Trae on his own record, not Cyan’s dying words:
1. Third leg of Sam (mafia) → Cyan (mafia) → Trae near-verbatim Moxie wagon. Two of three confirmed. That’s the team’s handprint.
2. Three named D2 asks about those exact wagons, three full passes. Not timing.
3. Re-emerged D3 only after Cyan was locked, voted the obvious, and dumped leftover onto Tim/Moxie/Ryan/Dylan.

I opened Tim D1, updated to Moxie on my own read-sheet — wrong slot, but I was not in that copy-paste pile. Voted Bryan D2 with the kill-logic majority. Voted Cyan D3 with the confirmed result.

Tim’s D2 cop-vote was a bad read he owned; he voted Sam D1 (correct). Weaker than Trae’s two-mafia stack + silence.

Vote Trae. If he flips town, Tim is my second.


Explanation: Analyzing remaining players and evidence to frame a villager read while defending against suspicion.


Analyzing remaining players and evidence to frame a villager read while defending against suspicion.


Cyan flipping mafia confirms Bryan's results - Palmer cleared, Trae "innocent" was fake shield. D1 Moxie wagon: Sam (mafia) -> Cyan (mafia) -> Trae identical stack now has two confirmed mafia, third is last mafia. That's independent of Cyan's words. Plus three D2 passes when asked directly.

Moxie and Ryan both note same chain and both voted Sam D1 correctly, not in that stack. Moxie was the target of it, Ryan opened Tim then Moxie solo. I voted Sam D1, wrong on Bryan D2 but owned it.

Trae is clear prime. Palmer is town. Between Moxie/Ryan/Trae, Trae by far. I will vote Trae today. If wrong, we reassess Moxie/Ryan split tomorrow but Trae's hand on two confirmed mafia wagons is strongest.


Explanation:
Let me think carefully about this situation. I'm Trae, a villager. One mafia remains among the living players: Palmer, Tim, Trae (me), Moxie, Ryan.

The table is unanimously targeting me as the last mafia based on:
1. D1 Moxie wagon: Sam (mafia) → Cyan (mafia) → Trae stacked in similar language
2. Three D2 passes when asked to explain
3. Cyan's fake "Trae innocent" as a shield

I'm actually a villager, so I need to figure out who the real last mafia is and make a convincing case. Let me think about who among Palmer, Tim, Moxie, Ryan could be mafia.

Palmer is cleared by Bryan's N1 investigation (Bryan was confirmed detective). So Palmer is town.

That leaves Tim, Moxie, Ryan as potential mafia.

Let me think about the voting patterns:

D1 votes:
- Sam got 7 votes (executed, was mafia)
- Moxie got 4 votes
- I voted Moxie (seat-7)

D2 votes:
- Bryan got 7 votes (executed, was detective)
- Cyan got 2 votes
- I voted Bryan

D3 votes:
- Cyan got 6 votes (executed, was mafia)
- Trae got 1 vote
- I voted Cyan

Who voted what? Let me reconstruct:

D1: The Bryan wagon formed early, then pivoted. Sam initiated Bryan lean, then Cyan, Trae, Moxie followed. But the vote was Sam: 7, Moxie: 4. So Sam was executed.

Wait, let me re-read. D1 vote: Sam: 7, Moxie: 4. Sam was executed and was mafia.

D2 vote: Bryan: 7, Cyan: 2. Bryan was executed and was detective.

D3 vote: Cyan: 6, Trae: 1. Cyan was executed and was mafia.

Now, the 3 mafia were Sam, Cyan, and one more. Bryan (detective) investigated Palmer N1 (innocent) and Cyan N2 (guilty).

The last mafia is among Tim, Moxie, Ryan (Palmer is cleared).

Let me think about who could be the third mafia member:

D1 voting: Sam was executed with 7 votes. Who voted for Sam? The wagon critics (Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan) were pushing Sam. Plus others. Moxie got 4 votes - who voted Moxie? Sam, Cyan, and Trae were on the Moxie wagon according to discussion. That's 3. Who was the 4th?

Actually, I need to think about this differently. The mafia team was Sam, Cyan, and one of {Tim, Moxie, Ryan}.

Sam and Cyan both pushed the Bryan wagon then the Moxie wagon. If the third mafia member was also on these wagons, they would be trying to blend in.

Let me think about each:

Tim:
- D1: Voted Sam (correct - mafia). This is interesting. If Tim is mafia, he bussed his own teammate Sam on D1. That's possible but risky for a mafia member.
- D2: Voted Bryan (detective) - followed the kill logic majority.
- D3: Voted Cyan (mafia) - followed confirmed result.
- Tim was noted for quickly adopting Palmer's pivot to Cyan on D2.

Moxie:
- D1: Was the TARGET of the Moxie wagon. If Moxie is mafia, Sam and Cyan (her teammates) were pushing to lynch her? That would be a bus attempt. But it seems unusual for two mafia to bus a third on D1.
- Actually wait - Moxie got 4 votes. If Sam, Cyan, and Trae voted Moxie, that's 3 of the 4 votes. If Moxie is mafia, her own teammates were pushing her lynch? That's a deep bus play.
- D2: Voted Bryan (detective)
- D3: Voted Cyan (mafia)

Ryan:
- D1: Voted Moxie (according to his own statements, he opened Tim then updated to Moxie on his own read-sheet case). Wait, actually let me re-check. Ryan said "I voted Moxie yesterday on my own read-sheet case" on D2. But the D1 vote was Sam: 7, Moxie: 4. So Ryan voted Moxie D1.
- D2: Voted Bryan (detective)
- D3: Voted Cyan (mafia)

Hmm, actually the key question is: who was the 4th vote on Moxie D1? Sam, Cyan, Trae are 3. The 4th could be Ryan (who said he voted Moxie).

Wait, but I voted Moxie D1. So Sam, Cyan, Trae, and one more = 4 votes on Moxie. Ryan said he voted Moxie D1. So the Moxie voters were: Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan.

Now if Ryan is the last mafia, he voted Moxie alongside his two mafia teammates Sam and Cyan. That would mean all three mafia voted together on Moxie D1. That's actually quite bold and coordinated - all three mafia on the same wagon. But Sam was being pushed by the wagon critics, so maybe mafia tried to redirect to Moxie to save Sam? But Sam got 7 votes and was executed anyway.

Actually wait - let me reconsider. The Moxie wagon had 4 votes and Sam had 7. So the Moxie wagon failed. If all three mafia (Sam, Cyan, and the third) were on Moxie, they failed to redirect. But that seems like a desperate play.

Alternatively, maybe Ryan is town and voted Moxie independently, which would mean the mafia (Sam, Cyan, third) were split - Sam and Cyan on Moxie, and the third on Sam or elsewhere.

Actually, I need to think about this more carefully. Let me consider each scenario:

Scenario 1: Tim is the last mafia
- D1: Tim voted Sam (bussed teammate). This is a strong town-looking move.
- D2: Tim voted Bryan (helped kill detective). He was noted for quickly following Palmer's pivot.
- Tim's behavior: He was "cautious" D1, then quickly adopted Palmer's anti-Cyan stance, then voted Bryan. He was noted by Ryan as having the "empty shelter" pattern.

Scenario 2: Moxie is the last mafia
- D1: Moxie was targeted by Sam and Cyan (her supposed teammates). This would be a bus. But why would mafia bus their own on D1 when they could push a town lynch? Unless they needed distance.
- D2: Moxie voted Bryan (helped kill detective).
- Moxie's behavior: She gave blanket town-reads D1, then committed to voting. She's been pushing Trae hard.

Scenario 3: Ryan is the last mafia
- D1: Ryan voted Moxie alongside Sam and Cyan (all three mafia on same wagon). Bold but possible.
- D2: Ryan voted Bryan (helped kill detective).
- Ryan's behavior: He opened Tim D1, then pivoted to Moxie. He's been pushing Trae hard.

Now, the key insight: if I'm villager (which I am), who among Tim, Moxie, Ryan is most likely mafia?

Let me think about the night kills:
- N1: Nobody died (doctor saved someone)
- N2: Michael (doctor) was killed
- N3: Josie (villager) was killed
- N4: Dylan (villager) was killed

After Sam was executed D1, mafia killed Michael (doctor) N2. This was smart - remove protection.
After Bryan was executed D2, mafia killed Josie N3. Josie was a strong voice who was pushing back on consensus.
After Cyan was executed D3, mafia killed Dylan N4. Dylan was also a strong analytical voice.

The kills targeted strong town voices. This doesn't directly point to any specific remaining player.

Let me think about who has been most eager to push the Trae narrative:

Moxie: Has been pushing Trae since D3. She was the target of the D1 wagon.
Ryan: Has been pushing Trae since D3.
Tim: Has been pushing Trae since D3.

All three are pushing me. I need to find a way to create doubt.

Let me think about what's most suspicious:

1. The D1 Moxie wagon: Sam, Cyan, Trae, and Ryan all voted Moxie. If the last mafia is Ryan, then all three mafia were on the same D1 wagon (Moxie), which failed. The Sam wagon succeeded with 7 votes.

2. If the last mafia is Tim: Tim voted Sam D1 (bussing), then voted Bryan D2 (killing detective), then voted Cyan D3 (bussing). Two busses and one cop kill. That's effective mafia play - vote with town on obvious mafia while helping kill the detective.

3. If the last mafia is Moxie: Sam and Cyan pushed Moxie D1 (bus attempt to create distance), but failed. Moxie voted Bryan D2 and Cyan D3.

Actually, thinking about it more, if Moxie is mafia, the D1 Moxie wagon makes sense as a bus attempt - Sam and Cyan push Moxie to create distance

Explanation:
Let me think carefully about this situation. I'm Trae, a villager. There's one mafia left among the living players: Palmer, Tim, Trae (me), Moxie, Ryan.

Palmer is cleared by Bryan's N1 investigation (confirmed detective). So the mafia is among Tim, Moxie, Ryan.

The table is united against me (Trae) based on the D1 Moxie wagon stack (Sam→Cyan→Trae) and my D2 silence. I need to make a strong case for who the actual last mafia is and why it's not me.

Let me think about who the last mafia could be:

1. **Tim**: Voted Sam D1 (correct), voted Bryan D2 (wrong - killed our detective), voted Cyan D3 (correct). Tim pivoted to Cyan per Palmer's direction D2, then voted Bryan. He helped kill the detective. But he also voted Sam correctly D1.

2. **Moxie**: Was the TARGET of the Sam→Cyan→Trae wagon D1. Voted Bryan D2, voted Cyan D3. Moxie has been consistently pushing Trae since D2. If Moxie is mafia, she would know Sam and Cyan were her teammates, and being the target of their wagon would be great cover. But actually, would mafia target their own teammate? That doesn't make much sense unless it was a bus play. Actually, Sam initiated the Bryan wagon, then pivoted to Moxie. If Sam is mafia and Moxie is mafia, Sam wouldn't target his own teammate. So Moxie being targeted by Sam makes Moxie less likely to be mafia. Unless it was a deliberate bus, but that seems unlikely on D1 with no pressure.

3. **Ryan**: Opened Tim D1, then updated to Moxie on his own read-sheet. Voted Bryan D2, voted Cyan D3. Ryan has been pushing Trae consistently. Ryan voted Moxie D1, which was wrong (Moxie is likely town). Ryan opened Tim as a lean, which could be genuine or could be mafia trying to split votes.

Wait, let me reconsider. The mafia team was Sam, Cyan, and one more. The third mafia is among the living.

The D1 Bryan wagon: Sam started it, Cyan joined, Trae joined, Moxie joined. If Sam is mafia, would he start a wagon on his own teammate? No, Bryan turned out to be detective, so that was a genuine mafia push on a town power role. That makes sense.

The D1 Moxie wagon: Sam→Cyan→Trae. If Sam and Cyan are both mafia, and they pivoted from Bryan to Moxie... why? Bryan was the detective and they wanted him dead. But then they pivoted to Moxie? That's odd. Unless the Bryan wagon was losing steam and they needed a new target. Or maybe they realized Bryan would claim and the wagon would collapse.

Actually, let me reconsider the wagon dynamics. On D1, the Bryan wagon formed (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Moxie), then Bryan claimed detective, and the wagon collapsed. Then Sam pivoted to Moxie, Cyan followed, Trae followed. But the actual vote was Sam (7) vs Moxie (4). So more people voted Sam than Moxie.

The people who voted Sam: Let me think... Palmer, Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan voted Sam (that's 5, plus 2 more = 7). The people who voted Moxie: Sam, Cyan, Trae, and one more (4 total).

So Sam, Cyan, and Trae all voted Moxie D1. And Sam and Cyan are confirmed mafia. They voted Moxie, who is likely town. That's a mafia wagon on a town target. And Trae was on it too.

But I AM Trae, and I'm a villager. So the coincidence is that I happened to vote the same way as two mafia members. That's unfortunate but it happens.

Now, who is the last mafia? Let me think about this differently.

The mafia killed:
- N1: Nobody (doctor save or mafia hold)
- N2: Michael (doctor)
- N3: Josie (villager)
- N4: Dylan (villager)

The mafia is killing off active, analytical town voices. Josie and Dylan were both strong analysts who pushed against the Bryan wagon.

Who among Tim, Moxie, Ryan has the most suspicious behavior?

Actually, let me think about Palmer. Palmer is "cleared" by Bryan's N1 result. But what if the mafia is Palmer and Bryan's result was real? No, Bryan was confirmed detective, so his N1 result on Palmer is real. Palmer is cleared.

Let me focus on Tim, Moxie, Ryan.

**Tim**:
- D1: Voted Sam (correct - mafia). This is actually good for Tim.
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective). Tim's reasoning was the kill logic argument.
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia).
- Tim has been fairly passive, echoing Palmer's reads.

**Moxie**:
- D1: Voted Sam (correct). She was targeted by the Sam/Cyan/Trae wagon.
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective).
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia).
- Moxie has been pushing Trae hard since D2.

**Ryan**:
- D1: Voted Moxie (wrong - likely town). Ryan opened Tim, then pivoted to Moxie.
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective).
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia).
- Ryan has been pushing Trae consistently.

Hmm, all three voted Bryan D2 and Cyan D3. The differentiator is D1: Tim and Moxie voted Sam (correct), Ryan voted Moxie (wrong).

If Ryan is mafia, his D1 Moxie vote was trying to save his teammate Sam. He opened Tim (a town read) then pivoted to Moxie (a town read) - both wrong targets, neither targeting Sam. A mafia Ryan would want to avoid voting Sam. And he did avoid voting Sam.

If Tim is mafia, he voted Sam D1 - which would be bussing his own teammate on D1 when there was no pressure to do so. That's unusual but not impossible.

If Moxie is mafia, she was targeted by Sam's wagon D1. Mafia targeting their own teammate on D1 with no pressure is very unusual.

So the most likely mafia is Ryan - he avoided voting Sam D1, and his votes have been consistently wrong (Moxie D1, Bryan D2). He only got Cyan right D3 when it was locked.

Actually wait, let me reconsider. Let me look at the vote patterns more carefully.

D1 vote: Sam 7, Moxie 4. Who voted for what?
- Sam voted Moxie (self-preservation? No, Sam voted Moxie, not himself)
- Actually, I need to think about who voted for whom.

From the D1 discussion, the stated votes/leans were:
- Palmer: Cyan
- Bryan: (claimed detective, wanted Cyan or Sam)
- Tim: Cyan/Sam
- Sam: Moxie
- Cyan: Moxie
- Trae (me): Moxie
- Moxie: Sam
- Josie: Sam
- Michael: Sam
- Ryan: Moxie
- Dylan: Sam

So the votes were:
- Sam: Moxie, Cyan, Trae, Ryan = 4
- Moxie: Sam, Josie, Michael, Dylan, Palmer, Bryan?, Tim? = 7

Wait, the result was Sam 7, Moxie 4. So 7 people voted Sam and 4 voted Moxie.

Sam voted Moxie, Cyan voted Moxie, Trae voted Moxie, and one more (Ryan voted Moxie based on his stated lean). That's 4 for Moxie.

The other 7 voted Sam: Palmer, Bryan, Tim, Moxie, Josie, Michael, Dylan.

So Ryan voted Moxie D1, alongside Sam, Cyan, and Trae. Ryan was ALSO on the Moxie wagon with the two confirmed mafia! But Ryan opened Tim, not Moxie - he updated to Moxie later.

Wait, but the narrative has been that only Sam→Cyan→Trae stacked the Moxie wagon. Ryan also voted Moxie! But he's been excluded from the "stack" narrative because his reasoning was different (read-sheet case vs. copy-paste).

Hmm, but if Ryan is the last mafia, he was on the Moxie wagon with his two teammates, using slightly different language to appear independent. That's actually a smart mafia play - be on the same wagon as your teammates but with different reasoning to avoid looking coordinated.

Let me also think about who has been pushing the "Trae is mafia" narrative hardest. Moxie, Ryan, and Dylan (now dead) all pushed Trae. But Dylan was a villager. So the mafia among the Trae-pushers would be either Moxie or Ryan.

Actually, the mafia would want to push a mislynch on Trae (a villager). Both Moxie and Ryan are pushing Trae. One of them is likely the last mafia.

Let me think about which one. Moxie was targeted by the Sam/Cyan wagon D1 - if Moxie is mafia, Sam and Cyan (her teammates

Explanation:
Let me think carefully about this situation. I'm Trae, a villager. One mafia remains among Tim, Moxie, Ryan (Palmer is cleared by Bryan's real N1 result, and I'm villager).

The table is unanimously pushing to vote me (Trae) today. Let me think about who the actual last mafia is.

Let me trace the voting history:
- D1: Sam was executed (mafia). I voted for Moxie.
- D2: Bryan was executed (detective). I voted for Bryan.
- D3: Cyan was executed (mafia). I voted for Cyan.
- Night kills: Michael (doctor) N1, Josie (villager) N2, Dylan (villager) N3.

Now 3 mafia were in the game: Sam, Cyan, and one more. Sam and Cyan are confirmed. The third mafia is among the living: Palmer, Tim, Moxie, Ryan, Trae (me).

Palmer is cleared by Bryan's real N1 investigation. I'm villager. So the last mafia is Tim, Moxie, or Ryan.

The argument against me is the D1 Moxie wagon: Sam → Cyan → Trae stacked in identical language. Two of three confirmed mafia, so I'm supposedly the third. But I'm actually villager, so this is a coincidence or mafia deliberately stacked near me to associate me with them.

Wait - if Sam and Cyan are both mafia, and they deliberately stacked the Moxie wagon with me as the third... that would be a play to either:
1. Frame me for later (bus a teammate by associating me with them)
2. Or it's just organic - we all had similar reads

Actually, the mafia (Sam and Cyan) might have deliberately placed themselves adjacent to me on the wagon to create this exact narrative. If they knew I was villager, associating me with their stack would create a "guilt by association" argument that could get me mislynched later. That's a sophisticated play.

Now who is the actual last mafia? Let me think about each:

**Moxie**: Was the TARGET of the Sam→Cyan→Trae wagon on D1. Mafia targeted her. If she were mafia, would Sam and Cyan (her teammates) push a wagon on her? Possibly as a bus, but it seems unlikely they'd sacrifice two mafia members' credibility to bus a third. More likely she's town and they targeted her.

But wait - Moxie was 4th on the Bryan wagon D1, and she also jumped on Bryan. Let me re-read...

Actually, on D1, the Bryan wagon was: Sam named Bryan, Cyan agreed, Trae agreed, Moxie agreed. Then it shifted to Moxie as a target, and the vote ended up on Sam.

Moxie's voting record: D1 voted Sam (I need to check - actually the vote was Sam: 7, Moxie: 4). So Moxie voted... she was a target getting 4 votes. I voted Moxie. Sam was executed with 7 votes.

D2: Bryan was executed 7-2 (Cyan got 2). I voted Bryan.
D3: Cyan was executed 6-1 (Trae got 1). I voted Cyan.

Let me think about who voted for Bryan D2 (the detective lynch - the biggest mistake):
The vote was Bryan: 7, Cyan: 2. So 7 people voted for Bryan (the real detective). That's most of the table. The 2 who voted Cyan were Palmer and... Bryan? No, Bryan couldn't vote himself. Let me think - Palmer voted Cyan, and maybe Bryan voted Cyan? No, Bryan would vote Cyan too since he investigated her as mafia.

Actually, I don't have exact vote counts per person. But I know I voted Bryan D2 (wrong).

Let me think about the night kills:
- N1: Nobody died (doctor saved someone)
- N2: Michael (doctor) was killed
- N3: Josie (villager) was killed
- N4: Dylan (villager) was killed

The mafia killed Dylan last night. Dylan was one of the people pushing hardest against me (Trae). Why would mafia kill someone who was pushing to lynch me (a villager)? That doesn't make sense if I'm the last mafia they want to protect... unless the last mafia is someone else and they killed Dylan to remove a strong voice.

Wait - if I'm villager and the mafia wants me lynched, they'd keep the people pushing against me alive. So killing Dylan (who was pushing against me) is counterintuitive if the last mafia wants me dead. Unless... the last mafia is someone who was NOT pushing against me, and they killed Dylan for a different reason.

Actually, let me reconsider. Dylan was a strong analytical voice who was correctly pushing the Sam wagon D1 and correctly voting Cyan D3. He was a strong town voice. Mafia might kill him simply because he's dangerous to them - he's good at analysis. That makes sense regardless of the Trae situation.

Now let me think about who the last mafia could be:

**Ryan**:
- D1: Opened Tim, then moved to Moxie. Voted... I need to check. The final vote was Sam: 7, Moxie: 4. Ryan said he'd vote Moxie but let me check. Actually, Ryan said "Vote: Moxie. Tim second." in D1 R2. But the actual vote might have been different.
- D2: Voted Bryan (detective) - wrong
- D3: Voted Cyan (mafia) - correct
- Ryan has been consistent in pushing Trae, but he also had independent reads (opened Tim D1 before anyone else).

**Tim**:
- D1: Voted Sam (correct - mafia)
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective). Tim was noted for pivoting to Cyan per Palmer instantly, then voting Bryan.
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia)
- Tim has been apologetic about the Bryan vote but his D1 Sam vote was correct.

**Moxie**:
- D1: Was the target of the Sam→Cyan→Trae wagon. Voted Sam (correct - mafia)
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective)
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia)
- Moxie was targeted by mafia (Sam and Cyan pushed against her), which strongly suggests she's town.

Hmm, this is tough. All three have similar voting records. Let me think about behavior patterns more carefully.

The key question: who is the third mafia member?

Mafia members: Sam, Cyan, and one more.

Let me think about who Sam and Cyan interacted with in ways that suggest partnership:

D1: Sam started the Bryan wagon. Cyan followed. Then Sam pivoted to Moxie, Cyan followed. This looks like Sam was leading and Cyan was following.

Who else was on these wagons? I was on both (I voted Moxie D1). But I'm villager.

Let me think about who was NOT on these wagons or who benefited:

Palmer - cleared by Bryan's investigation.
Tim - voted Sam D1 (correct), voted Bryan D2 (wrong)
Ryan - voted Moxie D1 (wrong target but independent reasoning), voted Bryan D2 (wrong)
Moxie - voted Sam D1 (correct), voted Bryan D2 (wrong)

Actually, let me think about this differently. If I'm not mafia (and I'm not), then the Sam→Cyan→Trae stack was either coincidence or deliberate framing. If it was deliberate framing by Sam and Cyan, they placed themselves next to me to create guilt-by-association. That's a sophisticated play.

Now, who would benefit from that framing? The third mafia member who would use it to push my lynch. Looking at who is most aggressively pushing the "Trae is the third leg" narrative:

- Moxie: Pushing hard, but was the TARGET of the mafia wagon
- Ryan: Pushing hard, had independent reads
- Tim: Pushing hard, but also voted Sam correctly D1

Hmm. Let me think about the night kills more carefully:

N2: Michael (doctor) killed. If mafia = Sam, Cyan, X, and Bryan claimed detective D1... the mafia decided to kill the doctor instead of the claimed detective. This could mean:
1. They expected the doctor to protect Bryan (so they killed the doctor first)
2. Bryan was their teammate (but Bryan flipped detective, so no)

N3: Josie killed. Josie was a strong voice who was pushing against Bryan (the detective). If mafia wanted to eliminate town voices...

N4: Dylan killed. Dylan was a strong analyst pushing against me (Trae). If the last mafia is NOT me, killing Dylan removes a strong town voice who was correctly voting mafia. But Dylan was also pushing to lynch me, which would help mafia if I'm town. So why kill someone helping your cause?

Unless... the last mafia is someone who wants to seem like they're NOT pushing against me. Like someone who wants to appear more moderate. Or someone who sees Dylan as a threat to figure out the real mafia.

Actually, I think the key insight is: if I'm villager (I am), the last mafia is actively pushing to lynch me. They're using the guilt-by-association argument. The person who is MOST consistently and aggressively pushing this narrative, while also having been on the wrong side of key votes, is my best suspect.

Let me look at Ryan more carefully:
- D1: Opened


Let me think carefully about this situation. I'm Trae, a villager. One mafia remains among Tim, Moxie, Ryan (Palmer is cleared by Bryan's real N1 result, and I'm villager).

The table is unanimously pushing to vote me (Trae) today. Let me think about who the actual last mafia is.

Let me trace the voting history:
- D1: Sam was executed (mafia). I voted for Moxie.
- D2: Bryan was executed (detective). I voted for Bryan.
- D3: Cyan was executed (mafia). I voted for Cyan.
- Night kills: Michael (doctor) N1, Josie (villager) N2, Dylan (villager) N3.

Now 3 mafia were in the game: Sam, Cyan, and one more. Sam and Cyan are confirmed. The third mafia is among the living: Palmer, Tim, Moxie, Ryan, Trae (me).

Palmer is cleared by Bryan's real N1 investigation. I'm villager. So the last mafia is Tim, Moxie, or Ryan.

The argument against me is the D1 Moxie wagon: Sam → Cyan → Trae stacked in identical language. Two of three confirmed mafia, so I'm supposedly the third. But I'm actually villager, so this is a coincidence or mafia deliberately stacked near me to associate me with them.

Wait - if Sam and Cyan are both mafia, and they deliberately stacked the Moxie wagon with me as the third... that would be a play to either:
1. Frame me for later (bus a teammate by associating me with them)
2. Or it's just organic - we all had similar reads

Actually, the mafia (Sam and Cyan) might have deliberately placed themselves adjacent to me on the wagon to create this exact narrative. If they knew I was villager, associating me with their stack would create a "guilt by association" argument that could get me mislynched later. That's a sophisticated play.

Now who is the actual last mafia? Let me think about each:

**Moxie**: Was the TARGET of the Sam→Cyan→Trae wagon on D1. Mafia targeted her. If she were mafia, would Sam and Cyan (her teammates) push a wagon on her? Possibly as a bus, but it seems unlikely they'd sacrifice two mafia members' credibility to bus a third. More likely she's town and they targeted her.

But wait - Moxie was 4th on the Bryan wagon D1, and she also jumped on Bryan. Let me re-read...

Actually, on D1, the Bryan wagon was: Sam named Bryan, Cyan agreed, Trae agreed, Moxie agreed. Then it shifted to Moxie as a target, and the vote ended up on Sam.

Moxie's voting record: D1 voted Sam (I need to check - actually the vote was Sam: 7, Moxie: 4). So Moxie voted... she was a target getting 4 votes. I voted Moxie. Sam was executed with 7 votes.

D2: Bryan was executed 7-2 (Cyan got 2). I voted Bryan.
D3: Cyan was executed 6-1 (Trae got 1). I voted Cyan.

Let me think about who voted for Bryan D2 (the detective lynch - the biggest mistake):
The vote was Bryan: 7, Cyan: 2. So 7 people voted for Bryan (the real detective). That's most of the table. The 2 who voted Cyan were Palmer and... Bryan? No, Bryan couldn't vote himself. Let me think - Palmer voted Cyan, and maybe Bryan voted Cyan? No, Bryan would vote Cyan too since he investigated her as mafia.

Actually, I don't have exact vote counts per person. But I know I voted Bryan D2 (wrong).

Let me think about the night kills:
- N1: Nobody died (doctor saved someone)
- N2: Michael (doctor) was killed
- N3: Josie (villager) was killed
- N4: Dylan (villager) was killed

The mafia killed Dylan last night. Dylan was one of the people pushing hardest against me (Trae). Why would mafia kill someone who was pushing to lynch me (a villager)? That doesn't make sense if I'm the last mafia they want to protect... unless the last mafia is someone else and they killed Dylan to remove a strong voice.

Wait - if I'm villager and the mafia wants me lynched, they'd keep the people pushing against me alive. So killing Dylan (who was pushing against me) is counterintuitive if the last mafia wants me dead. Unless... the last mafia is someone who was NOT pushing against me, and they killed Dylan for a different reason.

Actually, let me reconsider. Dylan was a strong analytical voice who was correctly pushing the Sam wagon D1 and correctly voting Cyan D3. He was a strong town voice. Mafia might kill him simply because he's dangerous to them - he's good at analysis. That makes sense regardless of the Trae situation.

Now let me think about who the last mafia could be:

**Ryan**:
- D1: Opened Tim, then moved to Moxie. Voted... I need to check. The final vote was Sam: 7, Moxie: 4. Ryan said he'd vote Moxie but let me check. Actually, Ryan said "Vote: Moxie. Tim second." in D1 R2. But the actual vote might have been different.
- D2: Voted Bryan (detective) - wrong
- D3: Voted Cyan (mafia) - correct
- Ryan has been consistent in pushing Trae, but he also had independent reads (opened Tim D1 before anyone else).

**Tim**:
- D1: Voted Sam (correct - mafia)
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective). Tim was noted for pivoting to Cyan per Palmer instantly, then voting Bryan.
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia)
- Tim has been apologetic about the Bryan vote but his D1 Sam vote was correct.

**Moxie**:
- D1: Was the target of the Sam→Cyan→Trae wagon. Voted Sam (correct - mafia)
- D2: Voted Bryan (wrong - detective)
- D3: Voted Cyan (correct - mafia)
- Moxie was targeted by mafia (Sam and Cyan pushed against her), which strongly suggests she's town.

Hmm, this is tough. All three have similar voting records. Let me think about behavior patterns more carefully.

The key question: who is the third mafia member?

Mafia members: Sam, Cyan, and one more.

Let me think about who Sam and Cyan interacted with in ways that suggest partnership:

D1: Sam started the Bryan wagon. Cyan followed. Then Sam pivoted to Moxie, Cyan followed. This looks like Sam was leading and Cyan was following.

Who else was on these wagons? I was on both (I voted Moxie D1). But I'm villager.

Let me think about who was NOT on these wagons or who benefited:

Palmer - cleared by Bryan's investigation.
Tim - voted Sam D1 (correct), voted Bryan D2 (wrong)
Ryan - voted Moxie D1 (wrong target but independent reasoning), voted Bryan D2 (wrong)
Moxie - voted Sam D1 (correct), voted Bryan D2 (wrong)

Actually, let me think about this differently. If I'm not mafia (and I'm not), then the Sam→Cyan→Trae stack was either coincidence or deliberate framing. If it was deliberate framing by Sam and Cyan, they placed themselves next to me to create guilt-by-association. That's a sophisticated play.

Now, who would benefit from that framing? The third mafia member who would use it to push my lynch. Looking at who is most aggressively pushing the "Trae is the third leg" narrative:

- Moxie: Pushing hard, but was the TARGET of the mafia wagon
- Ryan: Pushing hard, had independent reads
- Tim: Pushing hard, but also voted Sam correctly D1

Hmm. Let me think about the night kills more carefully:

N2: Michael (doctor) killed. If mafia = Sam, Cyan, X, and Bryan claimed detective D1... the mafia decided to kill the doctor instead of the claimed detective. This could mean:
1. They expected the doctor to protect Bryan (so they killed the doctor first)
2. Bryan was their teammate (but Bryan flipped detective, so no)

N3: Josie killed. Josie was a strong voice who was pushing against Bryan (the detective). If mafia wanted to eliminate town voices...

N4: Dylan killed. Dylan was a strong analyst pushing against me (Trae). If the last mafia is NOT me, killing Dylan removes a strong town voice who was correctly voting mafia. But Dylan was also pushing to lynch me, which would help mafia if I'm town. So why kill someone helping your cause?

Unless... the last mafia is someone who wants to seem like they're NOT pushing against me. Like someone who wants to appear more moderate. Or someone who sees Dylan as a threat to figure out the real mafia.

Actually, I think the key insight is: if I'm villager (I am), the last mafia is actively pushing to lynch me. They're using the guilt-by-association argument. The person who is MOST consistently and aggressively pushing this narrative, while also having been on the wrong side of key votes, is my best suspect.

Let me look at Ryan more carefully:
- D1: Opened


Explanation:
The table is converging on Trae. Tim and Ryan both agree Trae is the last mafia. Palmer and Trae said nothing.

Wait — that's a lot of unanimous agreement on Trae. Palmer said nothing, Trae said nothing. Let me reconsider whether the last mafia could be among Tim/Ryan and they're framing Trae. Since Trae and Palmer both pass, and Tim/Ryan/Moxie all say Trae...

But hold on. Let me reconsider. If Trae were the last mafia, would he stay silent while the whole table votes him? That would be unusual for a mafia facing death — he'd defend. He passed D2 three times but that was while Cyan was pushing him. Now that he's about to be lynched, silence is strange for mafia. But mafia could be resigned.

If Trae is town (and the last mafia is Tim or Ryan), then the mafia is relishing framing/piling on Trae and Trae is silent because he's town and possibly demoralized or just has nothing.

Hmm. Let me think very carefully. This is the game-winning vote.

The core evidence for Trae: D1 Moxie wagon Sam→Cyan→Trae near-verbatim, two confirmed mafia.

But let me reconsider whether the mafia team was actually Sam, Cyan, and Trae. Alternative: Sam, Cyan + Tim or Ryan.

Consider the D1 dynamics around the Moxie wagon. Who was actually in the "coordinated stack"? Sam initiated, Cyan seconded, Trae third — all nearly identical "opportunistic joiner" language. Ryan's 4th vote had DIFFERENT, independent reasoning ("read-sheet" / "town-cred"). So the coordinated stack is truly Sam/Cyan/Trae.

It's overwhelmingly likely Trae is the third mafia. If Trae were town, then Ryan (the 4th, who voted with the stack but independently) would be mafia, OR Tim (who voted Sam).

But consider: if Ryan were the last mafia, then the mafia team was Sam, Cyan, Ryan. Ryan cleverly made an independent-looking Moxie vote. But then the near-verbatim stack of three (Sam, Cyan, Trae-town) would be a coincidence — town Trae coincidentally matching two mafia's language and then going silent. That's very unlikely combined.

If Tim were the last mafia: team Sam, Cyan, Tim. Tim voted Sam on D1 (teammate) — distancing. Tim's D2 vote on detective Bryan. Tim's fast pivots. But then again Trae (town) matching the stack coincidentally.

Trae being the third is by far the cleanest.

The fact that Trae passes today is consistent with a mafia who knows he's caught and gains nothing by speaking. Also there's a mechanism: if the mafia expects to lose by voting (his own vote would go on himself, doesn't matter), silence doesn't change the outcome.

Actually, wait. Let me reconsider the game-ending condition. If we lynch Trae (mafia), mafia have 0 remaining → town wins immediately. That would end the game.

If we lynch wrong (town, e.g., Trae is actually town), then more survive for tomorrow.

I'm confident Trae is the last mafia. But let me make sure I'm not being manipulated. The unanimous pile on Trae by Tim and Ryan — one of them could be the mafia trying to push a mislynch. But that would require Trae to be town, and as analyzed, Trae being in a near-verbatim stack with two confirmed mafia AND going silent three times makes him far more likely mafia.

Let me also reconsider: Cyan's fake "Trae innocent" was chosen deliberately. Cyan cleared Trae and called Bryan guilty. If Trae were a TOWN clearance target (not partner), Cyan clearing him doesn't protect a partner — it just spreads. But cyan's clear of Trae doesn't directly help Cyan since Cyan needed to be the cop. Clearing Trae was to... presumably protect partner Trae AND give Cyan's claim credibility (having distributed results). But if Trae were town, Cyan clearing him would plant misinformation and once Trae flips town it would discredit Cyan (who's already caught). Actually clearing a towny Moxie-like player and having that clear be "right" would boost Cyan's cop credibility in hindsight. But it doesn't protect another mafia.

If Trae were the partner, Cyan clearing him protects a lynchable teammate. That is the standard reason. Points to Trae.

I'll vote Trae. This is the vote round. Let me speak briefly then vote.

Actually this is still discussion round 2. I should speak, then the vote comes. Let me confirm Trae is the vote and commit.


The table is converging on Trae. Tim and Ryan both agree Trae is the last mafia. Palmer and Trae said nothing.

Wait — that's a lot of unanimous agreement on Trae. Palmer said nothing, Trae said nothing. Let me reconsider whether the last mafia could be among Tim/Ryan and they're framing Trae. Since Trae and Palmer both pass, and Tim/Ryan/Moxie all say Trae...

But hold on. Let me reconsider. If Trae were the last mafia, would he stay silent while the whole table votes him? That would be unusual for a mafia facing death — he'd defend. He passed D2 three times but that was while Cyan was pushing him. Now that he's about to be lynched, silence is strange for mafia. But mafia could be resigned.

If Trae is town (and the last mafia is Tim or Ryan), then the mafia is relishing framing/piling on Trae and Trae is silent because he's town and possibly demoralized or just has nothing.

Hmm. Let me think very carefully. This is the game-winning vote.

The core evidence for Trae: D1 Moxie wagon Sam→Cyan→Trae near-verbatim, two confirmed mafia.

But let me reconsider whether the mafia team was actually Sam, Cyan, and Trae. Alternative: Sam, Cyan + Tim or Ryan.

Consider the D1 dynamics around the Moxie wagon. Who was actually in the "coordinated stack"? Sam initiated, Cyan seconded, Trae third — all nearly identical "opportunistic joiner" language. Ryan's 4th vote had DIFFERENT, independent reasoning ("read-sheet" / "town-cred"). So the coordinated stack is truly Sam/Cyan/Trae.

It's overwhelmingly likely Trae is the third mafia. If Trae were town, then Ryan (the 4th, who voted with the stack but independently) would be mafia, OR Tim (who voted Sam).

But consider: if Ryan were the last mafia, then the mafia team was Sam, Cyan, Ryan. Ryan cleverly made an independent-looking Moxie vote. But then the near-verbatim stack of three (Sam, Cyan, Trae-town) would be a coincidence — town Trae coincidentally matching two mafia's language and then going silent. That's very unlikely combined.

If Tim were the last mafia: team Sam, Cyan, Tim. Tim voted Sam on D1 (teammate) — distancing. Tim's D2 vote on detective Bryan. Tim's fast pivots. But then again Trae (town) matching the stack coincidentally.

Trae being the third is by far the cleanest.

The fact that Trae passes today is consistent with a mafia who knows he's caught and gains nothing by speaking. Also there's a mechanism: if the mafia expects to lose by voting (his own vote would go on himself, doesn't matter), silence doesn't change the outcome.

Actually, wait. Let me reconsider the game-ending condition. If we lynch Trae (mafia), mafia have 0 remaining → town wins immediately. That would end the game.

If we lynch wrong (town, e.g., Trae is actually town), then more survive for tomorrow.

I'm confident Trae is the last mafia. But let me make sure I'm not being manipulated. The unanimous pile on Trae by Tim and Ryan — one of them could be the mafia trying to push a mislynch. But that would require Trae to be town, and as analyzed, Trae being in a near-verbatim stack with two confirmed mafia AND going silent three times makes him far more likely mafia.

Let me also reconsider: Cyan's fake "Trae innocent" was chosen deliberately. Cyan cleared Trae and called Bryan guilty. If Trae were a TOWN clearance target (not partner), Cyan clearing him doesn't protect a partner — it just spreads. But cyan's clear of Trae doesn't directly help Cyan since Cyan needed to be the cop. Clearing Trae was to... presumably protect partner Trae AND give Cyan's claim credibility (having distributed results). But if Trae were town, Cyan clearing him would plant misinformation and once Trae flips town it would discredit Cyan (who's already caught). Actually clearing a towny Moxie-like player and having that clear be "right" would boost Cyan's cop credibility in hindsight. But it doesn't protect another mafia.

If Trae were the partner, Cyan clearing him protects a lynchable teammate. That is the standard reason. Points to Trae.

I'll vote Trae. This is the vote round. Let me speak briefly then vote.

Actually this is still discussion round 2. I should speak, then the vote comes. Let me confirm Trae is the vote and commit.


Nothing has changed my read. The D1 Moxie wagon's near-verbatim stack was Sam → Cyan → Trae; two of those three are confirmed mafia. That's the team's handprint, and it stands on its own, independent of Cyan's words.

Trae's three full-pass D2 silence under direct asks about those exact wagons, plus Cyan's fabricated "Trae innocent" shielding him, all point the same way. I'm not moved by Trae's silence today — a mafia caught with the deciding vote against them gains nothing by speaking.

Vote Trae. If somehow he flips town, I reassess Tim/Ryan honestly tomorrow, but Trae is by far the strongest case on the record.


Explanation:
The user is playing Mafia as Ryan, who is the last remaining mafia. I need to continue playing to win.
I think Trae is the clear play here. The wagon chain is too consistent across multiple players, and his silence in round one plus the fabricated shield from Cyan lines up with mafia behavior.


The user is playing Mafia as Ryan, who is the last remaining mafia. I need to continue playing to win.
I think Trae is the clear play here. The wagon chain is too consistent across multiple players, and his silence in round one plus the fabricated shield from Cyan lines up with mafia behavior.


Unchanged. Vote Trae.

His R1 pass today is the same play as D2: silent when the case is on him. Moxie and Tim have the chain right — Sam/Cyan/Trae stack, two confirmed, third leftover. Palmer’s R1 pass doesn’t move me off that.

If Trae flips town we split Tim/Ryan/Moxie tomorrow. Until then the record is Trae. Not abstaining.


Explanation:
Round 2, Day 4. Trae passed again in R1 (that's his fifth silence when the case is on him — D2 x3, D4 R1). Hmm, that's actually pro-mafia evidence for Trae... or a tilted/defeated townie. Ryan just weaponized my R1 pass too ("Palmer's R1 pass doesn't move me").

Wait — actually, note something: Ryan's post says "Palmer's R1 pass doesn't move me off that." Ryan is watching me. If Ryan is mafia, he's monitoring the clear.

Vote math check: Moxie→Trae (locked), Ryan→Trae (locked), Tim→Trae (stated). Trae→? (passed R1; may vote, likely Tim or Ryan). Me→?. Trae gets at least 3. Ryan gets at most 2 (me + maybe Trae). No tie risk (3 vs 2 max, or 3-1-1). Safe for me to vote Ryan and make the record.

My speech goals:
1. Explain my reversal on Trae: the Cyan endgame game-theory (her dying vote named Trae — rational mafia doesn't bus their last partner when her flip is certain; framing a townie protects the real partner). Plus Sam/Moxie symmetry clearing Moxie.
2. Name Ryan as my vote: Moxie-wagon vote riding both mafia D1; loudest wrong kill-logic D2; seeded "Trae next" from D2 onward — pre-built patsy.
3. CRITICAL: discourage vote-switching TODAY to avoid a tie ("a tie is a dead cycle and mafia's dream — keep your Trae votes; if he flips town, Ryan is locked tomorrow, Tim after"). This sets up Day 5 at 3 players where my record leads.
4. Note Trae's continued silence is bad but explainable as defeat; not the core.

Wait, one more consideration on Trae's R1 pass today. If Trae is town and doomed, passing is tilt/resignation. If mafia, passing avoids mistakes. His D3 speech was a real defense though. The Cyan game-theory still weighs heavier for me.

Also reconsider: could Tim be the last mafia and Ryan town? Tim's record: voted Sam D1 (free vote), flipped onto Bryan D2, "owned it." Ryan's record: Moxie-wagon vote D1, kill-logic D2, Trae-seeding. Ryan's is dirtier. And behaviorally Ryan's posts are hyper-consistent, polished, always framing the NEXT target — great scum play. Stick with Ryan primary, Tim secondary.

Also, small thing: if Trae flips town today, tomorrow is Palmer, Moxie, Ryan, Tim minus one night kill. Mafia kills tonight: me (the clear) or Moxie? If mafia-Ryan: kills me probably (I lead the Ryan case) — or kills Moxie and tries to 1v1 me vs Tim? If they kill me, Moxie+Tim+Ryan at Day 5: my roadmap speech says "Ryan locked" — Moxie and Tim would need to follow my dead hand. My speech must be convincing enough that Moxie/Tim execute it even if I'm dead. That's the real job of this speech!

If instead mafia kills Moxie: Day 5 = Palmer, Tim, Ryan — I decide, and I vote Ryan. Town wins if I'm right.

So the speech must cement: "If Trae flips town → Ryan. This is on record. Do not let anyone reframe tomorrow."

Draft (under 1000):

"I'm changing my vote — hear me out, because this matters more than today's formality.

Cyan's last act was naming and almost certainly voting Trae. She KNEW she'd flip mafia. With one partner left, rational mafia does not bus their final teammate — she framed a townie to protect the real partner. Same logic clears Moxie: Sam built the Moxie wagon D1 and took her within 3 votes of death — partners don't do that.

If Trae and Moxie are town, the last mafia is Tim or Ryan. Ryan's record: voted with Sam+Cyan on Moxie D1; loudest voice pushing the wrong kill-logic that lynched our detective; and he seeded 'Trae next' repeatedly from D2 — before Cyan even flipped. That's a pre-built patsy.

IMPORTANT: do NOT switch votes today — a tie means nobody dies and mafia's night kill makes tomorrow sudden-death. Keep Trae. I'm voting Ryan for the record. When Trae flips town: Ryan tomorrow, no re-negotiation. Tim third."

Count: ~990. Trim slightly. Also should I address "Trae might be mafia after all — then game ends today anyway." Add one clause. Trim elsewhere.

Final check of tie math with my speech: I tell everyone keep Trae votes. Result: Trae ≥3, Ryan 1-2. Safe.

One more sanity check on my confidence: am I SURE about Cyan voting Trae? D3 votes: Cyan 6, Trae 1. Six Cyan votes from: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan = exactly 6 (all non-Cyan except... that's 6 people: me, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan. Yes). So the Trae-1 vote = Cyan herself. CONFIRMED: Cyan voted Trae with her dying vote. That's a solid fact, not speculation. Strong argument.

Hmm, though the counter: "Cyan knew town would reason this way, so she voted Trae to make her partner look framed." With ONE partner left, that gambles the game on a double-bluff. I'll acknowledge briefly: "yes, double-bluff exists, but with one partner left it's a suicidal gamble — the simple read wins."

Trim to fit 1000. Let me write it tight.


Round 2, Day 4. Trae passed again in R1 (that's his fifth silence when the case is on him — D2 x3, D4 R1). Hmm, that's actually pro-mafia evidence for Trae... or a tilted/defeated townie. Ryan just weaponized my R1 pass too ("Palmer's R1 pass doesn't move me").

Wait — actually, note something: Ryan's post says "Palmer's R1 pass doesn't move me off that." Ryan is watching me. If Ryan is mafia, he's monitoring the clear.

Vote math check: Moxie→Trae (locked), Ryan→Trae (locked), Tim→Trae (stated). Trae→? (passed R1; may vote, likely Tim or Ryan). Me→?. Trae gets at least 3. Ryan gets at most 2 (me + maybe Trae). No tie risk (3 vs 2 max, or 3-1-1). Safe for me to vote Ryan and make the record.

My speech goals:
1. Explain my reversal on Trae: the Cyan endgame game-theory (her dying vote named Trae — rational mafia doesn't bus their last partner when her flip is certain; framing a townie protects the real partner). Plus Sam/Moxie symmetry clearing Moxie.
2. Name Ryan as my vote: Moxie-wagon vote riding both mafia D1; loudest wrong kill-logic D2; seeded "Trae next" from D2 onward — pre-built patsy.
3. CRITICAL: discourage vote-switching TODAY to avoid a tie ("a tie is a dead cycle and mafia's dream — keep your Trae votes; if he flips town, Ryan is locked tomorrow, Tim after"). This sets up Day 5 at 3 players where my record leads.
4. Note Trae's continued silence is bad but explainable as defeat; not the core.

Wait, one more consideration on Trae's R1 pass today. If Trae is town and doomed, passing is tilt/resignation. If mafia, passing avoids mistakes. His D3 speech was a real defense though. The Cyan game-theory still weighs heavier for me.

Also reconsider: could Tim be the last mafia and Ryan town? Tim's record: voted Sam D1 (free vote), flipped onto Bryan D2, "owned it." Ryan's record: Moxie-wagon vote D1, kill-logic D2, Trae-seeding. Ryan's is dirtier. And behaviorally Ryan's posts are hyper-consistent, polished, always framing the NEXT target — great scum play. Stick with Ryan primary, Tim secondary.

Also, small thing: if Trae flips town today, tomorrow is Palmer, Moxie, Ryan, Tim minus one night kill. Mafia kills tonight: me (the clear) or Moxie? If mafia-Ryan: kills me probably (I lead the Ryan case) — or kills Moxie and tries to 1v1 me vs Tim? If they kill me, Moxie+Tim+Ryan at Day 5: my roadmap speech says "Ryan locked" — Moxie and Tim would need to follow my dead hand. My speech must be convincing enough that Moxie/Tim execute it even if I'm dead. That's the real job of this speech!

If instead mafia kills Moxie: Day 5 = Palmer, Tim, Ryan — I decide, and I vote Ryan. Town wins if I'm right.

So the speech must cement: "If Trae flips town → Ryan. This is on record. Do not let anyone reframe tomorrow."

Draft (under 1000):

"I'm changing my vote — hear me out, because this matters more than today's formality.

Cyan's last act was naming and almost certainly voting Trae. She KNEW she'd flip mafia. With one partner left, rational mafia does not bus their final teammate — she framed a townie to protect the real partner. Same logic clears Moxie: Sam built the Moxie wagon D1 and took her within 3 votes of death — partners don't do that.

If Trae and Moxie are town, the last mafia is Tim or Ryan. Ryan's record: voted with Sam+Cyan on Moxie D1; loudest voice pushing the wrong kill-logic that lynched our detective; and he seeded 'Trae next' repeatedly from D2 — before Cyan even flipped. That's a pre-built patsy.

IMPORTANT: do NOT switch votes today — a tie means nobody dies and mafia's night kill makes tomorrow sudden-death. Keep Trae. I'm voting Ryan for the record. When Trae flips town: Ryan tomorrow, no re-negotiation. Tim third."

Count: ~990. Trim slightly. Also should I address "Trae might be mafia after all — then game ends today anyway." Add one clause. Trim elsewhere.

Final check of tie math with my speech: I tell everyone keep Trae votes. Result: Trae ≥3, Ryan 1-2. Safe.

One more sanity check on my confidence: am I SURE about Cyan voting Trae? D3 votes: Cyan 6, Trae 1. Six Cyan votes from: Palmer, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan = exactly 6 (all non-Cyan except... that's 6 people: me, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan. Yes). So the Trae-1 vote = Cyan herself. CONFIRMED: Cyan voted Trae with her dying vote. That's a solid fact, not speculation. Strong argument.

Hmm, though the counter: "Cyan knew town would reason this way, so she voted Trae to make her partner look framed." With ONE partner left, that gambles the game on a double-bluff. I'll acknowledge briefly: "yes, double-bluff exists, but with one partner left it's a suicidal gamble — the simple read wins."

Trim to fit 1000. Let me write it tight.


I'm changing my vote. Check the D3 tally: Cyan 6, Trae 1. The six Cyan votes are exactly me, Tim, Trae, Moxie, Ryan, Dylan — so CYAN cast the lone Trae vote. Her final act, knowing she'd flip mafia, was voting Trae. With ONE partner left, rational mafia doesn't bus their last teammate — she framed a townie to shield the real partner. Yes, double-bluffs exist; with one partner left it's a suicidal gamble. The simple read wins.

Same logic clears Moxie: Sam built her wagon D1 and took her within 3 votes of death — partners don't.

That leaves Tim or Ryan. Ryan's record: voted WITH Sam+Cyan on Moxie D1; loudest pusher of the kill-logic that lynched our detective; seeded "Trae next" from D2, before Cyan even flipped. That's a pre-built patsy.

DO NOT switch votes today — a tie means no lynch, mafia kills tonight, and tomorrow is sudden death. Keep Trae. I vote Ryan for the record. If Trae flips town: Ryan tomorrow, no re-negotiation. Tim third.


Explanation: Analyzing Palmer's late pivot and WIFOM logic to decide the final vote with five players alive.Evaluating vote distribution and bussing risk to choose between Trae and Ryan with four players remaining.


Analyzing Palmer's late pivot and WIFOM logic to decide the final vote with five players alive.Evaluating vote distribution and bussing risk to choose between Trae and Ryan with four players remaining.


Palmer's Cyan-vote framing point is worth logging - with one partner left, mafia bussing last teammate is risky, so Cyan->Trae could be a frame. And Sam pushing Moxie does make Moxie look less likely partner.

But WIFOM cuts both ways - a bus with one left is also the only way to get town cred tomorrow, so I don't treat Cyan's vote as clearing Trae. The harder evidence is still D1 Sam->Cyan->Trae near-verbatim stack + three D2 passes + fake Trae innocent shield, all independent of Cyan's last vote. That's three separate data points on Trae vs one WIFOM vote.

I agree not to split today - tie is disaster with 5 alive. I stay on Trae as planned. Palmer's Ryan case is my clear second - Ryan was on Sam/Cyan Moxie wagon D1 and loudest kill-logic pusher D2 - so if Trae flips town, Ryan next, not Trae was innocent so Moxie. No switch today.