Explanation:
Let me analyze the current state before making my final statement.

Key points from round 2:
1. **Bryan claims Detective** - investigated Palmer, says Palmer is clear. No counterclaim.
2. **Two main wagons forming**:
   - Palmer/Tim → Cyan (but Tim adopted Palmer's pivot instantly)
   - Sam/Cyan/Trae/Michael/Josie → Moxie (with identical "opportunistic joiner" language)
   - Ryan → Moxie independently
   - Moxie → Sam (calling Sam the hub)
   - I had Sam as my lean from round 1

3. **Pattern recognition**:
   - Bryan wagon (Sam→Cyan→Trae→Moxie) was flagged as fast convergence
   - Moxie wagon (Sam→Cyan→Trae) is now flagged as same fast convergence
   - Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan (me) split on different targets - more organic

4. **My round 1 lean was Sam** - I said Sam was the hub of the Bryan wagon, pressured everyone to name leans, could be mafia directing traffic.

4. **Current votes declared**:
   - Palmer: Cyan
   - Bryan: (not voting self, wants pivot to Cyan or Sam)
   - Tim: Cyan (adopted Palmer's)
   - Sam: Moxie
   - Cyan: Moxie
   - Trae: Moxie
   - Moxie: Sam
   - Josie: Sam
   - Michael: Sam
   - Ryan: Moxie
   - Me: was Sam, need to finalize

The Moxie wagon (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan) = 4 votes
The Sam wagon (Moxie, Josie, Michael) = 3 votes
The Cyan wagon (Palmer, Tim) = 2 votes
Bryan = 0 (claimed det)
Me = uncommitted

If I vote Sam, that's 4 for Sam (Moxie, Josie, Michael, me) vs 4 for Moxie (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan) - tie.
If I vote Moxie, that's 5 for Moxie vs 3 for Sam.
If I vote Cyan, that's 3 for Cyan vs 4 for Moxie vs 3 for Sam.

The tie executes nobody. We need to avoid 3 dead cycles = draw.

My analysis:
- Sam IS the hub. He started Bryan wagon, forced leans, now pivots to Moxie. His earliest backers (Cyan, Trae) followed him to Moxie. That's directing traffic.
- Moxie's defense is reasonable: she spoke 7th after 4 people flagged Bryan, town-reads + promised vote was the table's plan.
- The "opportunistic joiner" language from Sam/Cyan/Trae is suspiciously identical and fast.
- Josie and Michael independently landed on Sam as hub - that's organic convergence from wagon-critics.
- Ryan independently on Moxie with different reasoning (read-sheet + pre-painting trio under heat).

I think Sam is the stronger mafia candidate. The hub behavior + forcing commitments + redirecting wagon + his earliest backers following blindly is the clearest scum tell.

But I need to be careful: if Sam is town, then Moxie/Cyan/Trae could be mafia piling on Sam's town lead. However, the "identical language" convergence on Moxie is more suspicious than independent convergence on Sam.

Also: Bryan's detective claim. If true, Palmer is clear. If false, real detective can counterclaim later. Not voting Bryan today is correct EV.

I'll vote Sam. My round 1 lean was Sam, and round 2 reinforces it. The hub pattern is the strongest signal.

Let me craft a concise final statement.


Let me analyze the current state before making my final statement.

Key points from round 2:
1. **Bryan claims Detective** - investigated Palmer, says Palmer is clear. No counterclaim.
2. **Two main wagons forming**:
   - Palmer/Tim → Cyan (but Tim adopted Palmer's pivot instantly)
   - Sam/Cyan/Trae/Michael/Josie → Moxie (with identical "opportunistic joiner" language)
   - Ryan → Moxie independently
   - Moxie → Sam (calling Sam the hub)
   - I had Sam as my lean from round 1

3. **Pattern recognition**:
   - Bryan wagon (Sam→Cyan→Trae→Moxie) was flagged as fast convergence
   - Moxie wagon (Sam→Cyan→Trae) is now flagged as same fast convergence
   - Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan (me) split on different targets - more organic

4. **My round 1 lean was Sam** - I said Sam was the hub of the Bryan wagon, pressured everyone to name leans, could be mafia directing traffic.

4. **Current votes declared**:
   - Palmer: Cyan
   - Bryan: (not voting self, wants pivot to Cyan or Sam)
   - Tim: Cyan (adopted Palmer's)
   - Sam: Moxie
   - Cyan: Moxie
   - Trae: Moxie
   - Moxie: Sam
   - Josie: Sam
   - Michael: Sam
   - Ryan: Moxie
   - Me: was Sam, need to finalize

The Moxie wagon (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan) = 4 votes
The Sam wagon (Moxie, Josie, Michael) = 3 votes
The Cyan wagon (Palmer, Tim) = 2 votes
Bryan = 0 (claimed det)
Me = uncommitted

If I vote Sam, that's 4 for Sam (Moxie, Josie, Michael, me) vs 4 for Moxie (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan) - tie.
If I vote Moxie, that's 5 for Moxie vs 3 for Sam.
If I vote Cyan, that's 3 for Cyan vs 4 for Moxie vs 3 for Sam.

The tie executes nobody. We need to avoid 3 dead cycles = draw.

My analysis:
- Sam IS the hub. He started Bryan wagon, forced leans, now pivots to Moxie. His earliest backers (Cyan, Trae) followed him to Moxie. That's directing traffic.
- Moxie's defense is reasonable: she spoke 7th after 4 people flagged Bryan, town-reads + promised vote was the table's plan.
- The "opportunistic joiner" language from Sam/Cyan/Trae is suspiciously identical and fast.
- Josie and Michael independently landed on Sam as hub - that's organic convergence from wagon-critics.
- Ryan independently on Moxie with different reasoning (read-sheet + pre-painting trio under heat).

I think Sam is the stronger mafia candidate. The hub behavior + forcing commitments + redirecting wagon + his earliest backers following blindly is the clearest scum tell.

But I need to be careful: if Sam is town, then Moxie/Cyan/Trae could be mafia piling on Sam's town lead. However, the "identical language" convergence on Moxie is more suspicious than independent convergence on Sam.

Also: Bryan's detective claim. If true, Palmer is clear. If false, real detective can counterclaim later. Not voting Bryan today is correct EV.

I'll vote Sam. My round 1 lean was Sam, and round 2 reinforces it. The hub pattern is the strongest signal.

Let me craft a concise final statement.


Final round. Bryan's claim: don't lynch a claimed detective D1 without counterclaim. Palmer not mechanically cleared — fake claim clears a teammate for free.

Two wagons now. Moxie wagon: Sam→Cyan→Trae with identical "opportunistic joiner" language — same fast convergence we flagged on Bryan. Sam wagon: Josie, Michael independently call Sam the hub who seeded Bryan then redirected; Moxie votes Sam in self-defense. Ryan independently on Moxie with distinct reasoning.

The hub pattern on Sam is cleaner: he originated Bryan, forced commitments, then pivoted to Moxie and his earliest backers (Cyan, Trae) followed instantly. That's directing traffic. Moxie spoke 7th after four people flagged Bryan; town-reads + promised vote was the table's own plan.

Wagon critics (Josie, Michael, Ryan, me) split organically. The coordinated piles are on Bryan (dead) and Moxie (live). Sam is the common thread.

Not abstaining — draw helps mafia. Vote: Sam.


Explanation: The vote is happening now. Based on my analysis: Sam wagon (Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4) vs Moxie wagon (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan = 4). My vote likely breaks the tie. I'm voting Sam — the hub-directing-traffic case is the most developed, backed by independent critics I town-read, and a Sam flip gives maximum information. Avoiding a tie/dead cycle matters too.


The vote is happening now. Based on my analysis: Sam wagon (Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4) vs Moxie wagon (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan = 4). My vote likely breaks the tie. I'm voting Sam — the hub-directing-traffic case is the most developed, backed by independent critics I town-read, and a Sam flip gives maximum information. Avoiding a tie/dead cycle matters too.


Explanation:
The votes seem split between Sam and Moxie, and since my detective read points clearly to Palmer, I should back whichever lean is more reasoned rather than push my own theory. I'm trying to tally who's committed where—Josie, Michael, and Dylan seem to be on Sam, while Ryan, Cyan, and Trae lean Moxie, with Sam and Tim still uncertain.

Counting it out, Sam has four votes (Moxie, Josie, Michael, Dylan) and Moxie has four (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan), leaving a tie with Tim ambiguous and Palmer having gone Cyan earlier. Without investigation results on either suspect, I find the "Sam as hub" theory more compelling—he started the wagon on me and then pivoted to Moxie—so I'll break the tie by voting Sam.


The votes seem split between Sam and Moxie, and since my detective read points clearly to Palmer, I should back whichever lean is more reasoned rather than push my own theory. I'm trying to tally who's committed where—Josie, Michael, and Dylan seem to be on Sam, while Ryan, Cyan, and Trae lean Moxie, with Sam and Tim still uncertain.

Counting it out, Sam has four votes (Moxie, Josie, Michael, Dylan) and Moxie has four (Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan), leaving a tie with Tim ambiguous and Palmer having gone Cyan earlier. Without investigation results on either suspect, I find the "Sam as hub" theory more compelling—he started the wagon on me and then pivoted to Moxie—so I'll break the tie by voting Sam.


Explanation: Analyzing a tied Day 1 vote between Moxie and Sam to decide Tim's decisive vote.Evaluating wagon dynamics and coordination signals to choose the higher-evidence town vote.


Analyzing a tied Day 1 vote between Moxie and Sam to decide Tim's decisive vote.Evaluating wagon dynamics and coordination signals to choose the higher-evidence town vote.


Explanation:
**Analyzing the Vote Landscape**

Okay, let's break this down. First, I need to understand the current vote distribution. I see the stated votes: Palmer, Bryan, and Tim are all for Cyan in seat 5. Sam, Cyan (me), Trae, and Ryan are voting for Moxie in seat 7. Moxie, Josie, Michael, and Dylan are going for Sam in seat 4.

Now, let's tally this up to get a clear picture. Cyan has a solid 2-3 votes, likely because Bryan is saying either Cyan or Sam. Moxie and Sam are both at four votes. This is the crucial point! A tie between Moxie and Sam is a distinct possibility, which means no one is executed. I can't let that happen.

I'm checking the current vote breakdown: Moxie has four, Sam has four, and Cyan is at three. This means we have a total of 11 votes. The pivotal decision is whether Bryan casts a vote for Sam. Bryan's statement suggests he's considering both Cyan or Sam. If Bryan votes Sam, Sam gets five votes and is out. However, if Bryan votes Cyan, it leaves a potential tie.

The best strategy is to maximize the votes for Moxie. As it stands, Moxie has four votes. By voting for Moxie, I push Moxie's total to four. It has to be Moxie. I have to vote for Moxie in seat 7.


**Analyzing the Vote Landscape**

Okay, let's break this down. First, I need to understand the current vote distribution. I see the stated votes: Palmer, Bryan, and Tim are all for Cyan in seat 5. Sam, Cyan (me), Trae, and Ryan are voting for Moxie in seat 7. Moxie, Josie, Michael, and Dylan are going for Sam in seat 4.

Now, let's tally this up to get a clear picture. Cyan has a solid 2-3 votes, likely because Bryan is saying either Cyan or Sam. Moxie and Sam are both at four votes. This is the crucial point! A tie between Moxie and Sam is a distinct possibility, which means no one is executed. I can't let that happen.

I'm checking the current vote breakdown: Moxie has four, Sam has four, and Cyan is at three. This means we have a total of 11 votes. The pivotal decision is whether Bryan casts a vote for Sam. Bryan's statement suggests he's considering both Cyan or Sam. If Bryan votes Sam, Sam gets five votes and is out. However, if Bryan votes Cyan, it leaves a potential tie.

The best strategy is to maximize the votes for Moxie. As it stands, Moxie has four votes. By voting for Moxie, I push Moxie's total to four. It has to be Moxie. I have to vote for Moxie in seat 7.


Explanation:
Let me analyze the situation before voting.

**Current vote tally based on stated intentions:**
- Sam: Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4 votes
- Moxie: Trae (me), Ryan = 2 votes
- Cyan: Palmer, Tim = 2 votes (Palmer said Cyan, Tim said Cyan)
- Bryan: 0 (everyone backed off after detective claim)

So the current state:
- Sam has 4 votes (Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie)
- Moxie has 2 votes (me, Ryan)
- Cyan has 2 votes (Palmer, Tim)

Wait, let me re-check. Palmer said "I'm voting Cyan unless something changes." Tim said "I'm leaning Cyan as alternate per Palmer, Sam second." So Tim might vote Cyan or Sam.

The Sam wagon has the most votes right now at 4. If I stick with Moxie, my vote might be wasted and could lead to a tie or no execution.

Let me think about who I actually think is most likely mafia.

Key points:
1. Bryan claims detective and investigated Palmer (clear). No counterclaim. This is significant - if true, Bryan is town and Palmer is town.
2. Sam initiated the Bryan wagon, then pivoted to Moxie. Multiple people (Josie, Michael, Dylan) see Sam as the "hub" directing traffic.
3. The criticism of the fast convergence on Bryan (Sam→Cyan→Trae→Moxie) and then on Moxie (Sam→Cyan→Trae) is legitimate.
4. But I was part of that convergence - I need to be honest about whether my reasoning was independent or whether I was influenced.

Let me think about this more carefully:

- Sam started the Bryan push, which turned out to be on a claimed detective. If Bryan is telling the truth, Sam pushed a wagon on town law enforcement D1.
- Sam then pivoted to Moxie, and Cyan and I followed. The fact that Cyan and I both used similar "opportunistic joiner" language is being flagged as suspicious.
- The wagon critics (Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan) have all converged on Sam with similar reasoning about him being the hub.

Here's my dilemma: I committed to voting Moxie in round 2. But the Sam wagon now has 4 votes and is the plurality. If I vote Moxie, it's 4-2-2, Sam gets lynched. If I switch to Sam, it's 5-2, Sam gets lynched with more margin.

Actually wait - let me reconsider. Is Sam actually the best vote?

Arguments for Sam being mafia:
- He initiated the Bryan wagon (possibly on a real detective)
- He "forced commitments" by asking everyone to name leans - could be directing traffic
- He pivoted from Bryan to Moxie smoothly
- Cyan and I followed him both times - could indicate we're his teammates, or could indicate organic agreement

Arguments against Sam being mafia:
- His analysis was genuinely sharp and original
- Asking for leans creates accountability, which is pro-town
- The wagon critics (Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan) also converged suspiciously fast on Sam - that's also a pattern

Arguments for Moxie being mafia:
- 4th on Bryan wagon
- Gave blanket town-reads to active players
- Promised to vote but added little original analysis

Arguments against Moxie being mafia:
- Her R1 post was consistent with the table's stated plan
- She spoke 7th after 4 people already flagged Bryan
- Her self-defense vote on Sam is reasonable

Honestly, I think Sam is a reasonable vote. The hub argument is compelling - he seeded both wagons. But I'm also aware that I'm being accused of being in a trio with Sam and Cyan, and if Sam flips town, I'm in trouble.

Let me think about what's best for town here. The Sam wagon has 4 votes. My choices:
1. Vote Moxie (my stated intention) - keeps my word but may create a closer vote
2. Vote Sam - joins the plurality, but contradicts my stated round 2 position
3. Vote Cyan - joins Palmer/Tim
4. Abstain - bad, helps nobody

If I vote Moxie: 4 Sam, 3 Moxie, 2 Cyan → Sam lynched
If I vote Sam: 5 Sam, 2 Moxie, 2 Cyan → Sam lynched
If I vote Cyan: 4 Sam, 2 Moxie, 3 Cyan → Sam lynched

Sam gets lynched either way unless there are hidden votes. The question is whether I should stick with my stated Moxie vote or join the Sam plurality.

Actually, I think I should consider whether Sam or Moxie is more likely mafia more carefully.

Sam's behavior:
- Started Bryan wagon with actual reasoning
- Asked everyone to name leans (pro-town accountability)
- Pivoted to Moxie after Bryan claimed detective (reasonable - can't lynch claimed detective)
- His pivot reasoning (Moxie was most opportunistic) was similar to mine

Moxie's behavior:
- 4th on Bryan, latest of the early joiners
- Town-read everyone active (easy)
- Under pressure, immediately pre-painted Sam/Cyan/Trae as a trio

Actually, I think I'll stick with my Moxie vote. Here's why:
1. I said I'd vote Moxie and I should be consistent
2. The case on Moxie is legitimate even if the convergence is suspicious
3. If Sam is town and gets lynched, I'm already on record as a Moxie voter, which distinguishes me from the Sam/Cyan group
4. If I switch to Sam now, it looks like I'm just following the plurality, which makes me look worse

Wait, but there's a counterargument: if I genuinely think Sam is more likely mafia, I should vote Sam regardless of what I said. And the hub argument is strong.

Let me reconsider one more time. The people voting Sam: Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie. The people voting Moxie: me, Ryan. The people voting Cyan: Palmer, Tim.

Josie, Michael, and Dylan were the wagon critics - they flagged the fast convergence on Bryan before anyone else. Their read on Sam as the hub is consistent with their earlier observations. Moxie is voting Sam in self-defense. Ryan is voting Moxie with independent reasoning.

I think the Sam vote is actually well-reasoned by multiple independent thinkers. But I also think Moxie is a legitimate target.

Hmm, let me think about this differently. If Bryan's detective claim is true:
- Bryan is detective (town)
- Palmer is clear (town)
- That leaves 9 players for 3 mafia + 1 doctor + 5 villagers

The Bryan wagon was Sam→Cyan→me→Moxie. If Bryan is really the detective, then mafia was either on that wagon or pushed it. Sam started it. If Sam is mafia, he pushed a wagon on the real detective D1 - that's bold but not impossible.

If Sam is town, then the mafia might be among the wagon critics who redirected to Sam. Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan all converged on Sam with similar "hub" reasoning. That's also a convergence pattern.

I think I'm overthinking this. Let me just go with my gut. I think Sam's behavior - initiating the Bryan wagon, forcing early commitments, then smoothly pivoting to Moxie with his followers stacking behind - is more suspicious than Moxie's behavior. Multiple independent thinkers (Josie, Michael, Dylan) arrived at the same conclusion without coordination.

But I committed to Moxie in round 2. Switching now could look suspicious. On the other hand, new information came out in round 2 (the Samwagon forming, the pattern becoming clearer), so updating my vote is reasonable.

Actually, you know what, I think I'll vote Sam. The hub argument is compelling, multiple independent people arrived at it, and I'd rather vote with my updated genuine read than stick to a position I stated before hearing everyone. The key insight from round 2 is that Sam seeded BOTH wagons and his followers (Cyan, me) stacked behind both times. Even though my reasoning was genuine, the pattern is suspicious from the outside, and Sam is the common thread.

If Sam flips town, I'll be under scrutiny, but I've been transparent about my reasoning throughout. And if Sam flips mafia, it's a great result for town.

Let me vote Sam.

Wait, actually - one more consideration. If I vote Sam, and Sam flips town, I'm confirmed as part of the "Sam/Cyan/Trae" trio that Josie flagged. That would be very bad for me. But if I vote Moxie and Sam still gets lynched (which he will with 4 votes), I've maintained my independence and my read.

The thing is, my vote doesn't change the outcome. Sam will be lynched regardless of whether I vote Moxie or Sam (4 votes vs 2-3). So the question is purely about what's best for my position and for information value.

If I vote Moxie and Sam gets lynched:
- If Sam is mafia: great, but I wasn't on the right wagon
- If Sam is town: I can point to having voted Moxie, distinguishing myself from the Sam/Cyan group

If I vote Sam and Sam gets lynched:
- If Sam is mafia: great, I was on the right wagon
- If Sam is town: I look like part of the

Explanation:
Let me analyze the situation before voting.

Looking at the discussion, there are two main wagons:
1. Moxie - led by Sam, Cyan, and me (Trae), with Ryan also voting Moxie
2. Sam - led by Josie, Michael, Dylan, and Moxie (self-defense)

Let me count the votes:
- Moxie votes: Sam, Cyan, Trae (me), Ryan = 4
- Sam votes: Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4

Palmer, Bryan, and Tim haven't clearly stated their votes yet. Palmer was leaning Cyan, Bryan is the claimed detective, Tim was leaning Cyan/Sam.

Wait, let me re-read. Palmer said "I'm voting Cyan unless something changes." Tim said "leaning Cyan as alternate per Palmer, Sam second." Bryan hasn't stated a vote.

So the current stated votes:
- Moxie: Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan = 4
- Sam: Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4
- Cyan: Palmer = 1
- Unknown: Bryan, Tim

This could end in a tie if Bryan and Tim don't join either wagon. A tie means nobody dies.

Now, the key question: should I vote Moxie as I said, or switch to Sam?

Arguments for voting Moxie:
- She was 4th on the Bryan wagon with minimal original analysis
- She gave blanket town-reads to everyone active
- Ryan's reasoning about Moxie's pre-painting Sam/Cyan/Trae as a trio being a defense rather than a read

Arguments for voting Sam:
- Sam was the hub who initiated the Bryan wagon and then redirected to Moxie
- The "forced commitments" angle could be mafia directing traffic
- Josie, Michael, Dylan all independently arrived at Sam as the hub

But I already committed to voting Moxie in round 2, and switching now would look inconsistent and suspicious. Also, the criticism that Sam/Cyan/Trae used "identical language" about Moxie being an "opportunistic joiner" is concerning - but my reasoning was genuine and I explained it clearly.

I think I should stick with my stated vote of Moxie. Switching to Sam at the last minute would look like I'm following the wagon-critics' pressure, which could be read as either town adjusting or mafia panicking.

Let me vote Moxie as I said I would.


Let me analyze the situation before voting.

Looking at the discussion, there are two main wagons:
1. Moxie - led by Sam, Cyan, and me (Trae), with Ryan also voting Moxie
2. Sam - led by Josie, Michael, Dylan, and Moxie (self-defense)

Let me count the votes:
- Moxie votes: Sam, Cyan, Trae (me), Ryan = 4
- Sam votes: Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4

Palmer, Bryan, and Tim haven't clearly stated their votes yet. Palmer was leaning Cyan, Bryan is the claimed detective, Tim was leaning Cyan/Sam.

Wait, let me re-read. Palmer said "I'm voting Cyan unless something changes." Tim said "leaning Cyan as alternate per Palmer, Sam second." Bryan hasn't stated a vote.

So the current stated votes:
- Moxie: Sam, Cyan, Trae, Ryan = 4
- Sam: Josie, Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4
- Cyan: Palmer = 1
- Unknown: Bryan, Tim

This could end in a tie if Bryan and Tim don't join either wagon. A tie means nobody dies.

Now, the key question: should I vote Moxie as I said, or switch to Sam?

Arguments for voting Moxie:
- She was 4th on the Bryan wagon with minimal original analysis
- She gave blanket town-reads to everyone active
- Ryan's reasoning about Moxie's pre-painting Sam/Cyan/Trae as a trio being a defense rather than a read

Arguments for voting Sam:
- Sam was the hub who initiated the Bryan wagon and then redirected to Moxie
- The "forced commitments" angle could be mafia directing traffic
- Josie, Michael, Dylan all independently arrived at Sam as the hub

But I already committed to voting Moxie in round 2, and switching now would look inconsistent and suspicious. Also, the criticism that Sam/Cyan/Trae used "identical language" about Moxie being an "opportunistic joiner" is concerning - but my reasoning was genuine and I explained it clearly.

I think I should stick with my stated vote of Moxie. Switching to Sam at the last minute would look like I'm following the wagon-critics' pressure, which could be read as either town adjusting or mafia panicking.

Let me vote Moxie as I said I would.


Explanation: I need to vote. My stated lean is Sam. I'll vote Sam.


I need to vote. My stated lean is Sam. I'll vote Sam.


Explanation:
Time to vote. I committed to voting Sam. Let me check the final vote landscape based on stated intentions:

- Josie (me): Sam
- Michael: Sam
- Dylan: Sam
- Ryan: Moxie
- Moxie: Sam
- Sam: Moxie
- Cyan: Moxie
- Trae: Moxie
- Palmer: Cyan
- Tim: leaning Cyan
- Bryan: wants pivot to Cyan or hold on Sam — unclear, probably Cyan

So likely: Sam gets 4 (me, Michael, Dylan, Moxie), Moxie gets 4 (Ryan, Sam, Cyan, Trae), Cyan gets 2-3 (Palmer, Tim, Bryan?).

Plurality executes. If it's 4-4 between Sam and Moxie with 2-3 on Cyan... a tie executes nobody. Hmm. My vote for Sam is already counted in that 4. Should I reconsider?

Wait, let me recount carefully:
Sam votes: me (Josie), Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4
Moxie votes: Ryan, Sam, Cyan, Trae = 4
Cyan votes: Palmer, Tim (leaning), possibly Bryan = up to 3
Bryan: said "pivot to Cyan or hold on Sam" — he'd probably vote Cyan or Sam.
Tim: leaning Cyan.

If Bryan votes Cyan: Cyan=3 (Palmer, Tim, Bryan), Sam=4, Moxie=4. Tie between Sam and Moxie → nobody executed.

If Bryan votes Sam: Sam=5, Moxie=4, Cyan=2 → Sam executed.

Hmm. Interesting. As town, what do I actually want here?

My read: the {Sam, Cyan, Trae} cluster looks most coordinated. Moxie called them out explicitly ("If I flip town, Sam/Cyan/Trae deserve a hard look"). Ryan independently landed on Moxie though, with distinct reasoning — which complicates the "Moxie wagon is mafia-driven" theory since Ryan is one of us wagon-critics.

Actually wait — Ryan voting Moxie is interesting. Ryan was a wagon critic who then independently found Moxie's behavior scummy (read-sheet + pre-painting trio). That's an organic split within critics. So Moxie isn't purely a mafia-pushed target; there's genuine town suspicion of her too.

The realistic outcomes:
1. Sam lynched (5 votes): if Sam is mafia, great. If town, bad but we learn.
2. Tie → no lynch → night falls, mafia kill someone. Draw risk increases.
3. Moxie lynched (if some Sam voters flip).

Which lynch is better EV for town?

Let me think about probabilities. Mafia are 3 of these players. Candidates by my read:

Strong suspects: Sam, Cyan, Trae (coordinated cluster). Moxie (thin R1, but her defense has been reasonable and she's the one being piled by that cluster).

If mafia = {Sam, Cyan, Trae}: lynching Sam hits mafia. The Moxie pile makes sense as redirect to another town target. Moxie's callout ("watch Sam/Cyan/Trae") would be genuine town instinct.

If mafia includes Moxie (say {Sam, Cyan, Moxie} or {Moxie, + others}): then Sam/Cyan/Trae piling Moxie would be bussing — unusual D1 but possible if Moxie looked doomed anyway. Less likely; teams rarely bus D1 when they could control a wagon elsewhere.

Alternative: mafia = {Bryan + Palmer}? Bryan's fake detective claim clearing Palmer as a package. Then the whole Sam/Cyan/Trae vs Moxie fight could be town-vs-town noise, and mafia sits outside watching. Hmm. In this world, best move might be testing Bryan's claim... but consensus says don't lynch claimed detective D1. And honestly if Bryan were mafia faking detective, clearing Palmer gains little since Palmer wasn't under much heat. Though it does inoculate him.

Weighing: the strongest behavioral signal remains the triple-stack of identical reasoning from Sam/Cyan/Trae, plus Sam's hub role across both wagons. Sam flipping mafia validates everything; Sam flipping town means the real mafia watched town self-destruct, and Cyan/Trae alignment still needs review (as Michael said).

A tie (nobody dies) isn't terrible for town per se — we go to night, mafia kills someone, and we have a fresh day with the same reads plus a night-kill flip. But the table agreed draws favor mafia, and repeated no-lynches lead to the 3-cycle draw ending. One no-lynch day is survivable though. But I can't coordinate a tie; sealed ballots.

My commitment: vote Sam. It's also the highest-consistency choice with my stated reasoning — switching now would look terrible and be dishonest to my own analysis.

One consideration: should I switch to Moxie to break toward her? No — I genuinely believe Sam is the stronger suspect (hub of both wagons). Moxie's case is thinner: thin R1 + defensive posture. Also, if I'm right about {Sam, Cyan, Trae}, lynching Moxie (town) wastes the day AND hands mafia a free mislynch.

Also worth noting: if the vote ties at 4-4, nobody dies — and tomorrow we get a night kill flip to work with. That's an acceptable fallback, not something I need to engineer.

Final answer: vote seat-4 (Sam).


Time to vote. I committed to voting Sam. Let me check the final vote landscape based on stated intentions:

- Josie (me): Sam
- Michael: Sam
- Dylan: Sam
- Ryan: Moxie
- Moxie: Sam
- Sam: Moxie
- Cyan: Moxie
- Trae: Moxie
- Palmer: Cyan
- Tim: leaning Cyan
- Bryan: wants pivot to Cyan or hold on Sam — unclear, probably Cyan

So likely: Sam gets 4 (me, Michael, Dylan, Moxie), Moxie gets 4 (Ryan, Sam, Cyan, Trae), Cyan gets 2-3 (Palmer, Tim, Bryan?).

Plurality executes. If it's 4-4 between Sam and Moxie with 2-3 on Cyan... a tie executes nobody. Hmm. My vote for Sam is already counted in that 4. Should I reconsider?

Wait, let me recount carefully:
Sam votes: me (Josie), Michael, Dylan, Moxie = 4
Moxie votes: Ryan, Sam, Cyan, Trae = 4
Cyan votes: Palmer, Tim (leaning), possibly Bryan = up to 3
Bryan: said "pivot to Cyan or hold on Sam" — he'd probably vote Cyan or Sam.
Tim: leaning Cyan.

If Bryan votes Cyan: Cyan=3 (Palmer, Tim, Bryan), Sam=4, Moxie=4. Tie between Sam and Moxie → nobody executed.

If Bryan votes Sam: Sam=5, Moxie=4, Cyan=2 → Sam executed.

Hmm. Interesting. As town, what do I actually want here?

My read: the {Sam, Cyan, Trae} cluster looks most coordinated. Moxie called them out explicitly ("If I flip town, Sam/Cyan/Trae deserve a hard look"). Ryan independently landed on Moxie though, with distinct reasoning — which complicates the "Moxie wagon is mafia-driven" theory since Ryan is one of us wagon-critics.

Actually wait — Ryan voting Moxie is interesting. Ryan was a wagon critic who then independently found Moxie's behavior scummy (read-sheet + pre-painting trio). That's an organic split within critics. So Moxie isn't purely a mafia-pushed target; there's genuine town suspicion of her too.

The realistic outcomes:
1. Sam lynched (5 votes): if Sam is mafia, great. If town, bad but we learn.
2. Tie → no lynch → night falls, mafia kill someone. Draw risk increases.
3. Moxie lynched (if some Sam voters flip).

Which lynch is better EV for town?

Let me think about probabilities. Mafia are 3 of these players. Candidates by my read:

Strong suspects: Sam, Cyan, Trae (coordinated cluster). Moxie (thin R1, but her defense has been reasonable and she's the one being piled by that cluster).

If mafia = {Sam, Cyan, Trae}: lynching Sam hits mafia. The Moxie pile makes sense as redirect to another town target. Moxie's callout ("watch Sam/Cyan/Trae") would be genuine town instinct.

If mafia includes Moxie (say {Sam, Cyan, Moxie} or {Moxie, + others}): then Sam/Cyan/Trae piling Moxie would be bussing — unusual D1 but possible if Moxie looked doomed anyway. Less likely; teams rarely bus D1 when they could control a wagon elsewhere.

Alternative: mafia = {Bryan + Palmer}? Bryan's fake detective claim clearing Palmer as a package. Then the whole Sam/Cyan/Trae vs Moxie fight could be town-vs-town noise, and mafia sits outside watching. Hmm. In this world, best move might be testing Bryan's claim... but consensus says don't lynch claimed detective D1. And honestly if Bryan were mafia faking detective, clearing Palmer gains little since Palmer wasn't under much heat. Though it does inoculate him.

Weighing: the strongest behavioral signal remains the triple-stack of identical reasoning from Sam/Cyan/Trae, plus Sam's hub role across both wagons. Sam flipping mafia validates everything; Sam flipping town means the real mafia watched town self-destruct, and Cyan/Trae alignment still needs review (as Michael said).

A tie (nobody dies) isn't terrible for town per se — we go to night, mafia kills someone, and we have a fresh day with the same reads plus a night-kill flip. But the table agreed draws favor mafia, and repeated no-lynches lead to the 3-cycle draw ending. One no-lynch day is survivable though. But I can't coordinate a tie; sealed ballots.

My commitment: vote Sam. It's also the highest-consistency choice with my stated reasoning — switching now would look terrible and be dishonest to my own analysis.

One consideration: should I switch to Moxie to break toward her? No — I genuinely believe Sam is the stronger suspect (hub of both wagons). Moxie's case is thinner: thin R1 + defensive posture. Also, if I'm right about {Sam, Cyan, Trae}, lynching Moxie (town) wastes the day AND hands mafia a free mislynch.

Also worth noting: if the vote ties at 4-4, nobody dies — and tomorrow we get a night kill flip to work with. That's an acceptable fallback, not something I need to engineer.

Final answer: vote seat-4 (Sam).


Explanation:
The user wants me to vote. I'm Ryan, mafia, partners with Sam and Cyan.
I need to vote Moxie to stay consistent with my announcement and protect my partners' wagon.


The user wants me to vote. I'm Ryan, mafia, partners with Sam and Cyan.
I need to vote Moxie to stay consistent with my announcement and protect my partners' wagon.


Explanation:
The user wants me to vote. I've been consistent in my reasoning - Sam is the hub who initiated the Bryan wagon, forced commitments, then pivoted to Moxie with Cyan and Trae following instantly. The wagon critics (Josie, Michael, Ryan, me) split organically. The coordinated piles are on Bryan and Moxie. Sam is the common thread.

I should vote for Sam (seat-4).


The user wants me to vote. I've been consistent in my reasoning - Sam is the hub who initiated the Bryan wagon, forced commitments, then pivoted to Moxie with Cyan and Trae following instantly. The wagon critics (Josie, Michael, Ryan, me) split organically. The coordinated piles are on Bryan and Moxie. Sam is the common thread.

I should vote for Sam (seat-4).


Explanation:
**My Nighttime Mafia Strategy**

Okay, Sam's gone, revealed Mafia. That leaves Cyan and Ryan with me. Ten players are left – we need to be careful. Bryan claimed Detective, cleared Palmer. Is Bryan the real deal? If he is, who will he investigate tonight? And who will the Doctor protect? It's likely Bryan or Palmer. If the Doctor protects Bryan, we can't just shoot Bryan tonight!

But, wait, who *is* the Doctor? Last night we shot Michael, and nobody died! Did the Doctor self-protect or protect Michael? If Michael was protected N1, the Doctor *can't* protect Michael again tonight. Did Bryan really investigate Palmer N1, or was Bryan just playing villager/real detective?

If Bryan is the real Detective, the Doctor will most likely protect Bryan tonight since Bryan claimed detective D1 and survived. If Bryan gets protected, we can't shoot him directly.

So, who are our good targets then? Josie, very sharp, led the lynch on Sam. Michael is sharp too, and was our target N1, so he's off the Doctor's protection. Dylan is also sharp and voted Sam. Palmer is cleared by Bryan, so likely town trusts Palmer. Trae voted with us on Moxie, so might be a mislynch target for town. Keeping Trae alive gives town a target. Tim also voted Sam.

Wait, what if Bryan is fake claiming? The real detective might have stayed quiet D1. If Bryan is real, he'll investigate someone tonight, maybe Cyan, Ryan, or Trae. But if the Doctor is protecting Bryan... we shouldn't shoot Bryan directly, unless the Doctor thinks we won't. But, Doctor almost always protects the claimed Detective on N2!

So, what about Palmer, Josie, or Michael? Michael was saved N1, so no Doc protect. Josie has been driving town consensus. Dylan's a possibility too.

Okay, let's connect with Ryan in Mafia chat and brainstorm.


**My Nighttime Mafia Strategy**

Okay, Sam's gone, revealed Mafia. That leaves Cyan and Ryan with me. Ten players are left – we need to be careful. Bryan claimed Detective, cleared Palmer. Is Bryan the real deal? If he is, who will he investigate tonight? And who will the Doctor protect? It's likely Bryan or Palmer. If the Doctor protects Bryan, we can't just shoot Bryan tonight!

But, wait, who *is* the Doctor? Last night we shot Michael, and nobody died! Did the Doctor self-protect or protect Michael? If Michael was protected N1, the Doctor *can't* protect Michael again tonight. Did Bryan really investigate Palmer N1, or was Bryan just playing villager/real detective?

If Bryan is the real Detective, the Doctor will most likely protect Bryan tonight since Bryan claimed detective D1 and survived. If Bryan gets protected, we can't shoot him directly.

So, who are our good targets then? Josie, very sharp, led the lynch on Sam. Michael is sharp too, and was our target N1, so he's off the Doctor's protection. Dylan is also sharp and voted Sam. Palmer is cleared by Bryan, so likely town trusts Palmer. Trae voted with us on Moxie, so might be a mislynch target for town. Keeping Trae alive gives town a target. Tim also voted Sam.

Wait, what if Bryan is fake claiming? The real detective might have stayed quiet D1. If Bryan is real, he'll investigate someone tonight, maybe Cyan, Ryan, or Trae. But if the Doctor is protecting Bryan... we shouldn't shoot Bryan directly, unless the Doctor thinks we won't. But, Doctor almost always protects the claimed Detective on N2!

So, what about Palmer, Josie, or Michael? Michael was saved N1, so no Doc protect. Josie has been driving town consensus. Dylan's a possibility too.

Okay, let's connect with Ryan in Mafia chat and brainstorm.


Rough break with Sam flipping red. Town will heavily scrutinize Trae and me (Cyan) tomorrow since we were on the Moxie counter-wagon with Sam.

Tonight: Doctor will almost certainly protect Bryan (claimed cop). We shouldn't shoot into Bryan.
Michael (seat-9) was our N1 target (and likely the N1 doc save), so the doc cannot protect Michael tonight.
Alternatively, Josie (seat-8) or Dylan (seat-11) or Palmer (seat-1) are major town leaders.
I suggest killing Michael (seat-9) since he cannot be saved if he was N1 target, or Josie (seat-8) to remove a strong voice. What do you prefer?

For D2 day play: Ryan, you should probably distance from me if town pushes me hard. Keep Trae framed as the other person in the Moxie wagon.


Explanation: The user is playing Mafia as Ryan (seat-10), who is mafia. Partners were Sam, Cyan. Sam just got executed and flipped mafia. That's bad - one mafia down, 2 remaining vs 8 town (wait, 10 alive: 2 mafia...I agree with Cyan's read on Michael being a lock for tonight. Since we already killed him N1 and nobody died, the doc had to save him, so he can't be protected again.


The user is playing Mafia as Ryan (seat-10), who is mafia. Partners were Sam, Cyan. Sam just got executed and flipped mafia. That's bad - one mafia down, 2 remaining vs 8 town (wait, 10 alive: 2 mafia...I agree with Cyan's read on Michael being a lock for tonight. Since we already killed him N1 and nobody died, the doc had to save him, so he can't be protected again.


Lock Michael N2. He was the N1 save so Doc cannot cover him — guaranteed flip. Do not touch Bryan.

Day: I will not pair with you. My Moxie vote already looks adjacent, so I have to treat Sam’s copy-paste trail (you + Trae) as the scum pair and put Trae first. I’ll say my Moxie case was independent of the identical-language stack, which the thread actually supports.

If the table tunnels you, I won’t hard-defend — that paints us as the last two. I’ll reluctantly list you second behind Trae and try to keep the wagon on Trae/Moxie/Tim instead. You should also isolate Trae rather than look at me.

If we get a later night after this, rotate: Josie or Dylan, never adjacent to Michael again.


Explanation: With Sam confirmed mafia, I'm eyeing Cyan and Trae since they jumped on Moxie's wagon alongside Sam quickly, suggesting possible teamwork. Cyan seems worth investigating first given how involved he was in that wagon's dynamics.


With Sam confirmed mafia, I'm eyeing Cyan and Trae since they jumped on Moxie's wagon alongside Sam quickly, suggesting possible teamwork. Cyan seems worth investigating first given how involved he was in that wagon's dynamics.


Explanation:
**My Strategic Play**

Okay, so the situation is this: Ryan is on board with taking out Michael, who's in seat 9, tonight with a Night Kill. My analysis is that we've got the cooperation we need. Therefore, I'm confident in submitting Michael (seat-9) for the night kill. It's time to execute the plan.


**My Strategic Play**

Okay, so the situation is this: Ryan is on board with taking out Michael, who's in seat 9, tonight with a Night Kill. My analysis is that we've got the cooperation we need. Therefore, I'm confident in submitting Michael (seat-9) for the night kill. It's time to execute the plan.


Explanation: The user wants me to take a night kill action. We agreed to kill Michael (seat-9) because he was the N1 target and likely the doctor save, so the doctor cannot protect him tonight.


The user wants me to take a night kill action. We agreed to kill Michael (seat-9) because he was the N1 target and likely the doctor save, so the doctor cannot protect him tonight.


Explanation: With the doctor gone there's no protection left, so I need to speak up now and reveal that Cyan is mafia, building on the detective's earlier confirmation.


With the doctor gone there's no protection left, so I need to speak up now and reveal that Cyan is mafia, building on the detective's earlier confirmation.


Update from me, the detective (confirmed by Sam flipping mafia after I cleared Palmer): I investigated Cyan last night. Cyan is mafia, confirmed.

We should vote Cyan out today. This also fits the pattern several of you already flagged — Cyan was quick to stack onto the Sam-directed Moxie wagon, and Sam turned out to be mafia. With the doctor dead now too, we need to move decisively and get this right. I'd also ask Trae to explain their read on Cyan given they were adjacent in that wagon, since Trae piled in right alongside Sam and Cyan.

Vote Cyan today.


Explanation: Analyzing player claims and role probabilities to assess Bryan’s detective credibility and Cyan’s alignment.Evaluating Sam’s flip and the lack of counterclaim to weigh Bryan’s detective claim versus a potential mislynch of Cyan.


Analyzing player claims and role probabilities to assess Bryan’s detective credibility and Cyan’s alignment.Evaluating Sam’s flip and the lack of counterclaim to weigh Bryan’s detective claim versus a potential mislynch of Cyan.


Sam flipping mafia validates a lot of the D1 pattern analysis - the fast Sam -> Cyan -> Trae pile on both Bryan and then Moxie was flagged by Josie/Michael/Dylan and looks coordinated in hindsight.

Bryan's claim gets stronger today: D1 he refused to be mislynched, pushed off Bryan wagon, Sam turned out mafia as he suggested to look at that hub. Now with doctor dead and no counterclaim after two nights, his N2 result that Cyan is mafia has to be taken seriously - and it fits Cyan being second to stack Sam's Moxie wagon immediately.

I lean voting Cyan today as Bryan suggests, but want to hear Cyan directly next and Trae's answer to Bryan's question. If Cyan flips mafia we're down to 1 mafia, if not we need to reassess Bryan hard tomorrow. No abstain today.


Explanation:
**Detective Claim Analysis**

Okay, here's the situation. Michael flipped Doctor, which changes things. Bryan claimed Detective and immediately threw a guilty on me (Cyan). Either Bryan *is* the real Detective, or he's faking. If Bryan's real, then who investigated me N2 and got a guilty? If Bryan is fake, then who is Detective?

I'm guilty-scanned by a claimed Detective. Counter-claiming Detective is risky, especially since Bryan got that D1 claim in, but it is necessary. I need to get out the lie Bryan is spewing. Counter-claiming Detective might sow chaos, or claiming Villager and pointing out holes in Bryan's behavior, but it seems counter claiming Detective is the only play.

Bryan claimed D1, and Town said the real Detective shouldn't CC to avoid a night kill. Okay, here's the play: I'll claim: "I'm the real Detective. Bryan fake-claimed under pressure D1, and the table thought the real Detective shouldn't CC to avoid drawing the night kill. So, I stayed quiet, and hoped Doctor would protect me.

N1: Trae (Villager / innocent). N2: Bryan - MAFIA. Bryan is faking this because he got exposed! He is clearing Palmer, a classic Mafia partner clear!"

I need to make the Detective claim. If I do and am lynched, then they'll know Bryan is real. But if I don't, I'm toast and he's confirmed.

Counter-claiming *is* the only play that has a chance of success here.
Here's how I need to present this:
1.  N1: Trae (Innocent).
2.  N2: Bryan (MAFIA!).
3.  Why no CC D1? The table explicitly said the real Detective shouldn't CC to avoid the night kill.
4.  Bryan's D1 claim was a panicked fake-claim to escape the wagon, clearing Palmer. Last night, I investigated Bryan - MAFIA! He's trying to get me lynched because I can expose him!

Okay, let's craft the actual speech and keep it under 1000 characters.

Here's the final speech and explanation:

"I am the real Detective.

Yesterday, when Bryan fake-claimed Detective, the table agreed the real Detective should NOT counterclaim D1 to avoid getting killed at night. I stayed quiet to gather results.

My results: N1: Trae — Innocent. N2: Bryan — MAFIA.

Bryan is Mafia. His D1 claim was panic to escape the wagon on him, clearing Palmer. He knew I would investigate him last night, so he's pushing a fake 'guilty' on me today to eliminate the real cop.

Michael was the Doctor. Bryan is Mafia. Do not fall for his lie. Vote Bryan."

Total: 859 characters. I should be able to make this work.


**Detective Claim Analysis**

Okay, here's the situation. Michael flipped Doctor, which changes things. Bryan claimed Detective and immediately threw a guilty on me (Cyan). Either Bryan *is* the real Detective, or he's faking. If Bryan's real, then who investigated me N2 and got a guilty? If Bryan is fake, then who is Detective?

I'm guilty-scanned by a claimed Detective. Counter-claiming Detective is risky, especially since Bryan got that D1 claim in, but it is necessary. I need to get out the lie Bryan is spewing. Counter-claiming Detective might sow chaos, or claiming Villager and pointing out holes in Bryan's behavior, but it seems counter claiming Detective is the only play.

Bryan claimed D1, and Town said the real Detective shouldn't CC to avoid a night kill. Okay, here's the play: I'll claim: "I'm the real Detective. Bryan fake-claimed under pressure D1, and the table thought the real Detective shouldn't CC to avoid drawing the night kill. So, I stayed quiet, and hoped Doctor would protect me.

N1: Trae (Villager / innocent). N2: Bryan - MAFIA. Bryan is faking this because he got exposed! He is clearing Palmer, a classic Mafia partner clear!"

I need to make the Detective claim. If I do and am lynched, then they'll know Bryan is real. But if I don't, I'm toast and he's confirmed.

Counter-claiming *is* the only play that has a chance of success here.
Here's how I need to present this:
1.  N1: Trae (Innocent).
2.  N2: Bryan (MAFIA!).
3.  Why no CC D1? The table explicitly said the real Detective shouldn't CC to avoid the night kill.
4.  Bryan's D1 claim was a panicked fake-claim to escape the wagon, clearing Palmer. Last night, I investigated Bryan - MAFIA! He's trying to get me lynched because I can expose him!

Okay, let's craft the actual speech and keep it under 1000 characters.

Here's the final speech and explanation:

"I am the real Detective.

Yesterday, when Bryan fake-claimed Detective, the table agreed the real Detective should NOT counterclaim D1 to avoid getting killed at night. I stayed quiet to gather results.

My results: N1: Trae — Innocent. N2: Bryan — MAFIA.

Bryan is Mafia. His D1 claim was panic to escape the wagon on him, clearing Palmer. He knew I would investigate him last night, so he's pushing a fake 'guilty' on me today to eliminate the real cop.

Michael was the Doctor. Bryan is Mafia. Do not fall for his lie. Vote Bryan."

Total: 859 characters. I should be able to make this work.


I am the real Detective.

Yesterday, when Bryan fake-claimed Detective under pressure, the table explicitly agreed the real Detective should NOT counterclaim D1 to avoid getting killed at night. I stayed quiet to gather results.

My results:
N1: Investigated Trae — Innocent (Not Mafia).
N2: Investigated Bryan — MAFIA.

Bryan is Mafia. His D1 claim was pure panic to escape the wagon on him, clearing Palmer to pocket a vote. He knew that as the real Detective I would investigate him last night to test his claim. He's pre-emptively pushing a fake "guilty" on me today to eliminate the real cop before town catches on, exploiting the suspicion already on me from the Moxie vote.

Michael was the Doctor and was killed last night. Bryan is not the detective; he is Mafia desperately trying to trade 1-for-1 with the real Detective. Do not fall for his fabricated result. Vote Bryan.


Explanation:
Let me think carefully about this situation.

Two detective claims now:
- Bryan claims detective, says he cleared Palmer N1 (innocent) and investigated Cyan N2 (mafia).
- Cyan claims detective, says he investigated Trae N1 (innocent) and Bryan N2 (mafia).

Both can't be true. One of them is mafia (or both are mafia, but that seems unlikely since they're accusing each other).

Let me think about what I know:
- I'm a villager (Trae), and Cyan says he investigated me N1 and found me innocent. That's consistent with my role.
- Sam flipped mafia. That validates some of the pattern analysis.
- Michael was the doctor and was killed N2. That's bad for town.

Let me think about the claims:

Bryan's claim:
- N1: Investigated Palmer → Not mafia
- N2: Investigated Cyan → Mafia
- He claimed D1 under pressure when the wagon was on him
- Sam flipping mafia does lend some credibility to Bryan's story (Sam was the one pushing the Bryan wagon)

Cyan's claim:
- N1: Investigated Trae → Innocent (Not mafia) — This is TRUE, I am a villager!
- N2: Investigated Bryan → Mafia
- He didn't counterclaim D1 because the table agreed real detective shouldn't counterclaim D1

Both claim to have investigated the other and found mafia. One is lying.

Key considerations:
1. I know I'm a villager. Cyan says he investigated me N1 and found me innocent. That's correct. But a mafia Cyan could also know I'm a villager (if they investigated or just by deduction) — wait, no, mafia doesn't have an investigator. Mafia only kills at night. So Cyan correctly "guessing" I'm innocent could be him being the real detective, OR it could be a safe claim since he's mafia and needs to appear to have a real result. But actually, as mafia, Cyan wouldn't know my role for certain — he'd just be guessing. The fact that he says I'm innocent and that's correct could be:
   a) He's the real detective and actually investigated me
   b) He's mafia and guessed I'm innocent (which is statistically likely since 6 of 11 are villagers)

Actually, wait. If Cyan is mafia, he knows who the mafia members are. He would know I'm not mafia (since I'm not on his team). So he could safely claim I'm innocent. That doesn't help distinguish.

2. Bryan claimed detective D1 under pressure. This could be genuine (he was the real detective being pushed) or a mafia panic claim. If Bryan is mafia, he claimed to avoid being voted out.

3. The pattern analysis: Sam (mafia) started the Bryan wagon D1. Why would mafia push a wagon on Bryan if Bryan is mafia? That would be bussing. But if Bryan is town (the real detective), Sam pushing him makes perfect sense — mafia targeting the real detective.

Actually, this is a really important point. Sam was mafia and he initiated the push on Bryan. If Bryan were also mafia, Sam would be bussing his own teammate on D1 with no pressure — that's unusual but not impossible. If Bryan is the real detective, Sam (mafia) pushing to lynch the detective makes perfect strategic sense.

4. Cyan's counterclaim timing: Cyan waited until D2 to counterclaim. The table did say the real detective shouldn't counterclaim D1. This is consistent with Cyan being real. But it's also exactly what a mafia Cyan would say — "I waited because the table said to."

5. Michael (doctor) was killed N2. The mafia killed the doctor. If Bryan is the real detective, mafia might have wanted to kill Bryan but he's too exposed now, so they killed the doctor instead. If Cyan is the real detective, mafia killed the doctor and are trying to lynch the real detective (Cyan) via Bryan's fake claim.

6. My own behavior: I was on the Bryan wagon D1 alongside Sam (mafia) and Cyan. If I'm being completely honest, I was part of the pile that Josie/Michael/Ryan/Dylan flagged. Sam was the hub, and I followed. If Sam was mafia, was I being used? I'm a villager, so yes, I was unknowingly used by Sam.

Let me think about who the other 2 mafia are (since Sam was one of 3):

If Bryan is mafia:
- Bryan + 2 others. Cyan would be the real detective.
- Bryan's D1 claim was panic. His N1 "clear" of Palmer was fake (to pocket Palmer's vote).
- Sam (mafia) pushing Bryan D1 would be bussing — possible but risky on D1.
- Actually, if Bryan is mafia, why would Sam push his own teammate? That's the big question. Unless Sam was trying to distance himself.

If Cyan is mafia:
- Cyan + 2 others. Bryan would be the real detective.
- Cyan's counterclaim is fake. His N1 result (me innocent) is a safe guess.
- Sam (mafia) pushed Bryan (real detective) D1 — makes perfect sense for mafia.
- Cyan was second to pile on the Moxie wagon after Sam — could be coordinated mafia play.

The Sam-Bryan dynamic is key. Sam was mafia. Sam initiated the push on Bryan. If Bryan is the real detective, this is mafia correctly identifying and pushing the detective — very plausible. If Bryan is mafia, Sam bussed his teammate — less common on D1.

But also consider: if Bryan is mafia and Sam is mafia, they could have planned for Bryan to claim detective and then Sam bus. But that's a complex D1 plan.

On balance, I think Bryan's claim is more likely to be true because:
1. Sam (mafia) pushing Bryan (claimed detective) makes more sense than Sam bussing Bryan (both mafia)
2. Bryan's claim D1 actually changed the table's direction — it saved him from the wagon
3. If Bryan were fake, the real detective would investigate him at night (which Cyan claims to have done)

But Cyan's claim also has merits:
1. His N1 result (me innocent) is correct
2. He waited to counterclaim, which is what the table suggested
3. The pattern of Cyan being adjacent to Sam in wagons is suspicious

Actually, the fact that Cyan investigated ME (Trae) N1 is interesting. Why would the detective investigate me? I was seat 6, speaking 6th. I wasn't particularly suspicious N1 — I gave reads. But I was on the Bryan wagon. If Cyan is the real detective, investigating someone on the wagon to check if the wagon was coordinated makes sense.

Hmm, but also: if Cyan is mafia, claiming I'm innocent is safe because:
- He knows I'm not on his mafia team
- Giving me an "innocent" result might make me trust him and vote with him
- It's a strategic choice to pocket my vote

This is actually a common mafia play — clear a villager to gain their trust.

Let me think about the wagon dynamics more carefully:

D1 Bryan wagon: Sam (mafia) initiated, then Cyan, then Trae (me), then Moxie.
- If Cyan is also mafia, then 2 of the 4 wagon-pushers were mafia (Sam and Cyan), pushing on a town Bryan. That's a coordinated mafia push.
- If Bryan is mafia, then Sam was bussing his own teammate, and Cyan (real detective) genuinely found Bryan suspicious.

D1 Moxie wagon: Sam (mafia) pivoted to Moxie, then Cyan, then Trae (me).
- Again, Sam and Cyan both pivoted to Moxie. If both are mafia, that's two mafia coordinating again.
- If Cyan is real detective, he followed Sam's pivot, which is less suspicious.

The pattern of Sam and Cyan always being aligned is damning for Cyan if Sam was mafia. They moved together on both Bryan and Moxie wagons.

Actually wait, let me reconsider. I also moved with Sam on both wagons. And I'm a villager. So the alignment isn't necessarily mafia coordination — it could just be town following a persuasive speaker.

But the key difference: I acknowledged the speed criticism and reflected on it. Cyan has been defensive about the alignment.

Let me think about what I should say and who I should vote for.

I think I lean toward believing Bryan because:
1. Sam (mafia) pushed Bryan D1 — makes sense if Bryan is the real detective
2. Cyan's wagon alignment with Sam (mafia) is suspicious
3. Cyan's "investigate Trae N1" could be a pocket play

But I'm not 100% sure. Let me think about what happens if we vote wrong:
- If we vote Cyan and he's the real detective: we lose the detective AND Bryan (mafia) lives. We'd have 7 alive with 2 mafia (Bryan + 1 other). Bad.
- If we vote Bryan and he's the real detective: we lose the detective AND Cyan (mafia) lives. We'd have 7 alive with 2 mafia (Cyan + 1 other). Bad.
- If we vote Cyan and he's mafia: great, down to 1 mafia. Bryan (real detective) lives.
- If we vote Bryan and he's mafia: great, down to 1 mafia. Cyan (real detective) lives.

Both choices have the same risk/reward structure. The question is purely: who is more likely to be mafia?

I lean Bryan being the real detective because Sam

Explanation:
Let me think through this carefully.

**Bryan's claim:**
- D1: Claimed detective, said he investigated Palmer → cleared.
- D2: Says he investigated Cyan → mafia.

**Cyan's counterclaim:**
- Claims real detective.
- N1: Investigated Trae → innocent.
- N2: Investigated Bryan → mafia.

**Key facts:**
- Sam flipped mafia. This is confirmed.
- Michael was the doctor and was killed in the night.

So the doctor is dead. That means there's no doctor protection tonight going forward.

Now, both Bryan and Cyan are claiming detective. One is lying (mafia), one is telling the truth (detective). Or both could be mafia, but there are only 3 mafia and Sam was one, so there are 2 left. If both Bryan and Cyan were mafia, that would be 2 of the remaining 2 mafia — possible but unlikely since one would be sacrificing themselves.

Let me think about the logic:

**If Bryan is the real detective:**
- He investigated Palmer N1 → cleared (not mafia). True.
- He investigated Cyan N2 → mafia. True.
- Cyan is mafia and is fake-claiming detective to survive.

**If Cyan is the real detective:**
- He investigated Trae N1 → innocent. True.
- He investigated Bryan N2 → mafia. True.
- Bryan is mafia and fake-claimed detective D1 to survive the wagon.

**My position:**
- I'm a villager, so I know I'm town. Cyan's claim that he investigated me N1 and found me innocent is consistent with my actual role. This doesn't prove Cyan is the detective (a mafia could easily claim to have investigated a townie and found them innocent), but it's at least not contradicted.

**D1 behavior analysis:**
- Bryan was very cautious/noncommittal in R1, then claimed detective under pressure when the wagon was forming on him. This is consistent with both a real detective trying to survive and a mafia member panicking.
- Cyan was 5th speaker, echoed Sam's Bryan read. Later was flagged by Palmer as the "purest echo."

**The Sam connection:**
- Sam was mafia. Sam initiated the Bryan wagon D1. If Bryan is town (real detective), mafia Sam pushing to lynch the detective makes perfect sense — mafia would want to eliminate the detective.
- If Bryan is mafia, then Sam (also mafia) was pushing to lynch his own teammate? That seems less likely unless it was a bus strategy. But Bryan was the first real wagon target, and Sam pushed it hard. Bussing a teammate D1 when you don't need to is risky.

Wait, this is a really important point. If Bryan is mafia, then Sam (also mafia) was the one who INITIATED the wagon on Bryan. That would mean mafia Sam bussed mafia Bryan on D1. That's a high-risk play — you don't typically bus your own teammate on Day 1 when there's no pressure to do so.

On the other hand, if Bryan is the real detective, Sam (mafia) pushing to lynch him makes perfect sense — get rid of the detective before he can share results.

This actually strongly favors Bryan being the real detective. Mafia Sam targeted Bryan (the real detective) for elimination, and Bryan had to claim to survive.

**But wait — let me reconsider.** Sam also could have been bussing Bryan to gain town cred. If Sam suspected Bryan might get wagoned anyway, initiating the wagon would make Sam look good. But Bryan wasn't an obvious target before Sam pointed at him — Bryan's post was thin but so were several others. Sam chose to single out Bryan specifically.

Actually, thinking about it more: if Bryan is mafia, Sam initiating a wagon on his own teammate is a known bus strategy. It's risky but not unheard of, especially if Sam thought Bryan's thin play would attract attention anyway. By being the one to start it, Sam looks town.

But if Bryan is the real detective, Sam starting a wagon on him is even more logical — mafia wants the detective dead.

Hmm, both interpretations are possible. But the "mafia kills the real detective" interpretation feels more natural than "mafia buses own teammate D1."

**Cyan's claim analysis:**
- Cyan says he investigated Trae (me) N1 → innocent. This is true (I'm a villager), so it checks out. But a mafia Cyan could easily say this since I've been acting townie.
- Cyan says he investigated Bryan N2 → mafia.

**The counterclaim timing:**
- Bryan claimed D1 when under pressure. Cyan didn't counterclaim D1, which the table agreed was the right play for the real detective. Now Cyan counterclaims D2. This timing is consistent with Cyan being the real detective who waited.
- But it's also consistent with Cyan being mafia who waited to see how D1 played out and then counterclaimed D2 when Bryan pushed on him.

**The Michael kill:**
- Michael was the doctor. He was killed N2. If Bryan is mafia, he might have wanted to kill Michael (who was defending the wagon critics). If Cyan is mafia, same logic.
- Actually, the doctor would likely have been protecting someone. Michael was killed, meaning mafia targeted Michael. This could be because Michael was acting townie and mafia wanted to remove a strong town voice, or because they suspected he was the doctor.

**My assessment:**
The strongest argument is the Sam connection. Sam (confirmed mafia) INITIATED the Bryan wagon. This makes more sense if Bryan is town (mafia targeting a townie/detector) than if Bryan is mafia (mafia bussing own teammate D1 unnecessarily).

However, I need to be careful. Let me think about what happens if I'm wrong either way:

- If we vote Cyan and Cyan is the real detective: We lose the detective AND Bryan (mafia) survives. Bad.
- If we vote Bryan and Bryan is the real detective: We lose the detective AND Cyan (mafia) survives. Bad.
- If we vote Cyan and Cyan is mafia: Great, we got a mafia and Bryan is confirmed detective.
- If we vote Bryan and Bryan is mafia: Great, we got a mafia and Cyan is confirmed detective.

Either way, we're taking a risk. The question is which is more likely.

I'm leaning toward Bryan being the real detective because:
1. Sam (mafia) initiated the wagon on Bryan — makes more sense as mafia targeting the detective.
2. Bryan's caution in R1 is consistent with a detective not wanting to draw attention.
3. Cyan's R1 behavior was more echo-like, which Palmer flagged.

But I also need to consider: Cyan claiming he investigated me and found me innocent is a point in his favor (it's verifiable from my perspective — I AM innocent). Though a smart mafia would investigate... wait, mafia doesn't investigate. If Cyan is mafia, he's just claiming he investigated me. He could have picked me because I was acting townie and it's a safe claim.

Actually, let me reconsider the Sam-bussing angle more carefully. There are 3 mafia. If Sam and Bryan are both mafia, Sam bussing Bryan would be a 2-for-1 strategy where Sam sacrifices Bryan to gain town cred. With 3 mafia, losing one to gain cred is a viable strategy, especially if Sam then uses that cred to direct wagons (which he did — he pivoted to Moxie).

But here's the thing: if Bryan is mafia and Sam is mafia, and Sam bussed Bryan, then Bryan claiming detective to survive the wagon would be part of the bus plan? That seems overly elaborate. More likely, if Bryan is mafia, he claimed detective out of genuine panic to survive, and Sam's wagon on him was either a bus or...

Actually wait. If Bryan is mafia and Sam is mafia, Sam wouldn't need to bus Bryan unless Bryan was already in danger. Sam INITIATED the Bryan wagon — he created the danger. Why would mafia Sam create danger for mafia Bryan? Unless:
1. It's a bus strategy to gain cred.
2. Sam didn't know Bryan would be wagoned that hard.

If it's a bus, then Bryan's detective claim would be unplanned panic, which actually could work — Bryan panics, claims detective, Sam "reveals" he's mafia by flipping, and now Bryan looks more credible because "mafia Sam targeted him."

But this requires a LOT of coordination and risk. It's simpler to believe Sam (mafia) targeted Bryan (real detective) to eliminate him.

I'm going to lean toward voting Cyan, but I want to hear more. Let me think about what to say.

Actually, I should be thoughtful here. I'm being asked to speak in round 1 of 2. Let me share my analysis and see what others say before the vote.

One more consideration: Cyan investigated me and found me innocent. If Cyan is the real detective, this is true. If Cyan is mafia, he's using me as a prop — claiming to have cleared a known townie to build credibility. This is actually a common mafia tactic. So I shouldn't be swayed by the fact that Cyan "cleared" me — it's the safest claim a fake detective could make.

Let me also think about the N1 no-kill. We now know Michael was the doctor. If Michael saved someone N1 and prevented the kill, that's consistent with the "doctor save" theory. If Bryan is the real detective and investigated Palmer N1, and Michael was the doctor... Michael might have saved Bryan (the detective) or Palmer or someone else.

If Cyan is mafia, the mafia kill on N1 was prevented by Michael. If Bryan is mafia, same

Explanation:
Let me analyze the situation carefully.

**Bryan claims:** Detective. N1: Palmer innocent. N2: Cyan is mafia.

**Cyan claims:** Detective. N1: Trae innocent. N2: Bryan is mafia.

Both can't be true. One of them is lying. Let me think through this:

1. Sam flipped mafia yesterday. That's confirmed.

2. Bryan claimed detective D1 under pressure from the wagon. He said he investigated Palmer (innocent). No counterclaim came D1 (table agreed real detective should stay quiet).

3. Now Cyan counterclaims as detective. Cyan says N1: Trae innocent, N2: Bryan mafia.

4. Michael (doctor) was killed last night. So the doctor is dead - no protection for anyone tonight.

Key considerations:
- Bryan's D1 claim came under wagon pressure. That's a classic mafia survival move. But Sam did flip mafia, which Bryan suggested looking at.
- Cyan stayed quiet D1 (as the table advised), and is now claiming with results.
- Cyan says Trae is innocent (N1). If Cyan is mafia, why would he clear Trae? To pocket Trae's vote? That's possible.
- Bryan says Cyan is mafia (N2). Cyan says Bryan is mafia (N2).

If Bryan is the real detective:
- Cyan is mafia. Cyan is fake-claiming detective to save himself.
- Palmer is clear (N1).

If Cyan is the real detective:
- Bryan is mafia. Bryan fake-claimed D1 to survive.
- Trae is clear (N1).

The doctor is dead, so there's no protection tonight. If we lynch wrong, we lose another townie tonight and the detective (whoever is real) might get killed.

Wait - but the doctor is already dead. So the mafia will kill someone tonight regardless. The real detective, if alive tomorrow, can investigate again. But if we lynch the real detective today, we lose our investigation power.

Let me think about who's more likely to be telling the truth:

1. Bryan claimed D1 under pressure. This is suspicious - it's exactly what a mafia would do to survive a lynch. But it also worked - the wagon moved off him.

2. Cyan waited until D2 to counterclaim. This is consistent with the table's D1 advice to not counterclaim. If Cyan is the real detective, he investigated Bryan N2 and found mafia, which makes perfect sense - he'd want to test Bryan's claim.

3. If Bryan is real detective, why didn't Cyan counterclaim D1? Because Cyan is mafia and didn't have results. But Cyan could have counterclaimed D1 to create confusion. The fact that Cyan waited is consistent with being real detective who followed table advice.

4. If Cyan is mafia, his claim of "Trae innocent N1" could be an attempt to pocket Trae's vote. But if Bryan is the real detective, Cyan knows Bryan investigated him and will claim guilty, so Cyan needs to pre-empt with a counter-claim.

5. The fact that Sam flipped mafia is interesting. Bryan suggested looking at the wagon hub (Sam). But Bryan was ON the wagon that formed against Bryan himself - Sam started it. So Bryan pointing at Sam could be genuine or could be Bryan (mafia) redirecting to a teammate who was already in trouble.

Actually wait - if Bryan is mafia, Sam was also mafia. Would Bryan sacrifice Sam? That's possible - Sam was already under heavy suspicion, and Bryan could gain credibility by "correctly" pointing at Sam.

6. If Cyan is the real detective, and he investigated Trae N1 (innocent) and Bryan N2 (mafia), this makes sense. He tested Bryan's claim and found him mafia.

7. If Bryan is the real detective, he investigated Palmer N1 (innocent) and Cyan N2 (mafia). This also makes sense - he'd investigate someone suspicious.

The key question: who do I believe?

I'm a villager. I know my own role. Cyan says I'm innocent (N1 investigation). If Cyan is mafia, he's lying about investigating me to pocket my vote. If Cyan is real, he genuinely cleared me.

Bryan says Palmer is clear (N1) and Cyan is mafia (N2).

Both claims have internal logic. But I think the balance of evidence favors Cyan:

1. Bryan's D1 claim came under pressure - classic mafia survival tactic.
2. Cyan followed the table's advice to not counterclaim D1 - consistent with real detective.
3. Cyan investigated Bryan N2 to test his claim - exactly what a real detective would do.
4. If Bryan is mafia, Sam was his teammate. Bryan could have sacrificed Sam to gain credibility, then use that credibility to push a mislynch on Cyan (the real detective) today.
5. Bryan's pattern: claim detective under pressure, clear a townie (Palmer) to pocket them, then push a guilty on the real detective.

But I should also consider:
- If Cyan is mafia, Cyan investigated me (Trae) N1 and found innocent... wait, mafia don't investigate. If Cyan is mafia, he's fabricating the Trae innocent result. He could say anyone is innocent. Why Trae? Because Trae spoke right before Cyan in the order, and Trae was somewhat town-read by others. Clearing Trae would pocket Trae's vote.

Hmm, this is tricky. Let me think about the wagon dynamics:

D1 wagons: Sam started the Bryan wagon, then Cyan, Trae, Moxie joined. Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan pushed back.

If Sam was mafia (confirmed), who were his teammates? The people who followed his lead quickly - Cyan and Trae (me). But I'm a villager, so if Sam was mafia and I followed him, either I was fooled or...

If Bryan is mafia (as Cyan claims), then the mafia team might be Bryan + 2 others (not Sam). But Sam flipped mafia. So if Bryan is mafia, Sam was also mafia - they were teammates.

If Cyan is mafia (as Bryan claims), then Sam and Cyan were teammates. Sam started the Bryan wagon, Cyan joined quickly - coordinated. That fits.

But if Bryan is mafia, Sam was his teammate, and Bryan sacrificed Sam. Then Bryan is trying to lynch Cyan (real detective) today.

The critical thing: I know I'm town. I was on the Bryan wagon, following Sam's lead. If Sam was mafia and was directing the wagon, why would mafia Sam target Bryan (his teammate if Bryan is mafia)? That doesn't make sense - you don't start a wagon on your own teammate D1.

Unless... Sam started the Bryan wagon knowing Bryan would claim detective and survive, making the wagon look bad and giving Bryan credibility. That's a deep play but possible.

Actually, that's a pretty interesting angle. If Bryan is mafia:
- Sam (mafia) starts a wagon on Bryan (mafia teammate)
- Bryan claims detective under pressure, wagon collapses
- This gives Bryan credibility (he "survived" and "correctly" pointed at Sam)
- Now Bryan uses that credibility to push the real detective (Cyan)

This is a known mafia strategy called bussing. Sam was the bus, Bryan is the beneficiary.

Alternatively, if Cyan is mafia:
- Sam (mafia) starts Bryan wagon
- Cyan (mafia teammate) joins quickly
- The wagon gets flagged for speed
- Sam gets lynched (caught)
- Cyan now counterclaims Bryan to survive

This also makes sense. Cyan was flagged by Palmer as "purest echo" on D1.

Both narratives are plausible. Let me think about what's more likely:

The bussing strategy (Bryan mafia, Sam sacrificed) is sophisticated but risky. If Bryan hadn't claimed detective, he might have been lynched instead of Sam. That's a big risk for mafia to take on D1 with no information.

The simpler explanation: Sam started a wagon on a real townie (Bryan), Cyan (mafia teammate) joined, they got caught, Sam was lynched. Now Cyan is caught and counterclaims to survive.

Actually wait - Bryan claimed detective and the wagon moved off him. Then the table pivoted to Sam and Moxie. Sam was lynched. If Bryan were mafia and Sam was mafia, Bryan's fake claim would have redirected the lynch away from both of them... but Sam still got lynched. So the bussing didn't fully work if that was the plan.

Hmm, but the wagon moved to Sam partly because of the speed criticism from Josie/Michael/Ryan/Dylan, and partly because Bryan's claim made voting him bad EV. So the table organically moved to Sam.

Let me think about this differently. The key question is: who do I believe as the real detective?

I think I lean toward believing Cyan:
1. Cyan's counterclaim timing is correct (waited until D2 as table advised)
2. Cyan investigated Bryan N2 to test his claim - logical
3. Bryan claiming D1 under pressure is more suspicious
4. The bussing explanation (Sam sacrifice) is plausible for Bryan being mafia

But I'm not 100% sure. Let me think about what I should say.

I should be honest about my reasoning. I should also note that Cyan clearing me (Trae) doesn't automatically make me trust Cyan - a smart mafia could clear a townie to pocket their vote.

But overall, I think the evidence points more toward Bryan being mafia. Let me say that.

Actually, let me reconsider one more time. If Cyan is the real detective and found Bryan mafia, and I know I'm town (confirmed by Cyan's N1 investigation of me being innocent), then the mafia team was Sam + Bryan


Let me analyze the situation carefully.

**Bryan claims:** Detective. N1: Palmer innocent. N2: Cyan is mafia.

**Cyan claims:** Detective. N1: Trae innocent. N2: Bryan is mafia.

Both can't be true. One of them is lying. Let me think through this:

1. Sam flipped mafia yesterday. That's confirmed.

2. Bryan claimed detective D1 under pressure from the wagon. He said he investigated Palmer (innocent). No counterclaim came D1 (table agreed real detective should stay quiet).

3. Now Cyan counterclaims as detective. Cyan says N1: Trae innocent, N2: Bryan mafia.

4. Michael (doctor) was killed last night. So the doctor is dead - no protection for anyone tonight.

Key considerations:
- Bryan's D1 claim came under wagon pressure. That's a classic mafia survival move. But Sam did flip mafia, which Bryan suggested looking at.
- Cyan stayed quiet D1 (as the table advised), and is now claiming with results.
- Cyan says Trae is innocent (N1). If Cyan is mafia, why would he clear Trae? To pocket Trae's vote? That's possible.
- Bryan says Cyan is mafia (N2). Cyan says Bryan is mafia (N2).

If Bryan is the real detective:
- Cyan is mafia. Cyan is fake-claiming detective to save himself.
- Palmer is clear (N1).

If Cyan is the real detective:
- Bryan is mafia. Bryan fake-claimed D1 to survive.
- Trae is clear (N1).

The doctor is dead, so there's no protection tonight. If we lynch wrong, we lose another townie tonight and the detective (whoever is real) might get killed.

Wait - but the doctor is already dead. So the mafia will kill someone tonight regardless. The real detective, if alive tomorrow, can investigate again. But if we lynch the real detective today, we lose our investigation power.

Let me think about who's more likely to be telling the truth:

1. Bryan claimed D1 under pressure. This is suspicious - it's exactly what a mafia would do to survive a lynch. But it also worked - the wagon moved off him.

2. Cyan waited until D2 to counterclaim. This is consistent with the table's D1 advice to not counterclaim. If Cyan is the real detective, he investigated Bryan N2 and found mafia, which makes perfect sense - he'd want to test Bryan's claim.

3. If Bryan is real detective, why didn't Cyan counterclaim D1? Because Cyan is mafia and didn't have results. But Cyan could have counterclaimed D1 to create confusion. The fact that Cyan waited is consistent with being real detective who followed table advice.

4. If Cyan is mafia, his claim of "Trae innocent N1" could be an attempt to pocket Trae's vote. But if Bryan is the real detective, Cyan knows Bryan investigated him and will claim guilty, so Cyan needs to pre-empt with a counter-claim.

5. The fact that Sam flipped mafia is interesting. Bryan suggested looking at the wagon hub (Sam). But Bryan was ON the wagon that formed against Bryan himself - Sam started it. So Bryan pointing at Sam could be genuine or could be Bryan (mafia) redirecting to a teammate who was already in trouble.

Actually wait - if Bryan is mafia, Sam was also mafia. Would Bryan sacrifice Sam? That's possible - Sam was already under heavy suspicion, and Bryan could gain credibility by "correctly" pointing at Sam.

6. If Cyan is the real detective, and he investigated Trae N1 (innocent) and Bryan N2 (mafia), this makes sense. He tested Bryan's claim and found him mafia.

7. If Bryan is the real detective, he investigated Palmer N1 (innocent) and Cyan N2 (mafia). This also makes sense - he'd investigate someone suspicious.

The key question: who do I believe?

I'm a villager. I know my own role. Cyan says I'm innocent (N1 investigation). If Cyan is mafia, he's lying about investigating me to pocket my vote. If Cyan is real, he genuinely cleared me.

Bryan says Palmer is clear (N1) and Cyan is mafia (N2).

Both claims have internal logic. But I think the balance of evidence favors Cyan:

1. Bryan's D1 claim came under pressure - classic mafia survival tactic.
2. Cyan followed the table's advice to not counterclaim D1 - consistent with real detective.
3. Cyan investigated Bryan N2 to test his claim - exactly what a real detective would do.
4. If Bryan is mafia, Sam was his teammate. Bryan could have sacrificed Sam to gain credibility, then use that credibility to push a mislynch on Cyan (the real detective) today.
5. Bryan's pattern: claim detective under pressure, clear a townie (Palmer) to pocket them, then push a guilty on the real detective.

But I should also consider:
- If Cyan is mafia, Cyan investigated me (Trae) N1 and found innocent... wait, mafia don't investigate. If Cyan is mafia, he's fabricating the Trae innocent result. He could say anyone is innocent. Why Trae? Because Trae spoke right before Cyan in the order, and Trae was somewhat town-read by others. Clearing Trae would pocket Trae's vote.

Hmm, this is tricky. Let me think about the wagon dynamics:

D1 wagons: Sam started the Bryan wagon, then Cyan, Trae, Moxie joined. Josie, Michael, Ryan, Dylan pushed back.

If Sam was mafia (confirmed), who were his teammates? The people who followed his lead quickly - Cyan and Trae (me). But I'm a villager, so if Sam was mafia and I followed him, either I was fooled or...

If Bryan is mafia (as Cyan claims), then the mafia team might be Bryan + 2 others (not Sam). But Sam flipped mafia. So if Bryan is mafia, Sam was also mafia - they were teammates.

If Cyan is mafia (as Bryan claims), then Sam and Cyan were teammates. Sam started the Bryan wagon, Cyan joined quickly - coordinated. That fits.

But if Bryan is mafia, Sam was his teammate, and Bryan sacrificed Sam. Then Bryan is trying to lynch Cyan (real detective) today.

The critical thing: I know I'm town. I was on the Bryan wagon, following Sam's lead. If Sam was mafia and was directing the wagon, why would mafia Sam target Bryan (his teammate if Bryan is mafia)? That doesn't make sense - you don't start a wagon on your own teammate D1.

Unless... Sam started the Bryan wagon knowing Bryan would claim detective and survive, making the wagon look bad and giving Bryan credibility. That's a deep play but possible.

Actually, that's a pretty interesting angle. If Bryan is mafia:
- Sam (mafia) starts a wagon on Bryan (mafia teammate)
- Bryan claims detective under pressure, wagon collapses
- This gives Bryan credibility (he "survived" and "correctly" pointed at Sam)
- Now Bryan uses that credibility to push the real detective (Cyan)

This is a known mafia strategy called bussing. Sam was the bus, Bryan is the beneficiary.

Alternatively, if Cyan is mafia:
- Sam (mafia) starts Bryan wagon
- Cyan (mafia teammate) joins quickly
- The wagon gets flagged for speed
- Sam gets lynched (caught)
- Cyan now counterclaims Bryan to survive

This also makes sense. Cyan was flagged by Palmer as "purest echo" on D1.

Both narratives are plausible. Let me think about what's more likely:

The bussing strategy (Bryan mafia, Sam sacrificed) is sophisticated but risky. If Bryan hadn't claimed detective, he might have been lynched instead of Sam. That's a big risk for mafia to take on D1 with no information.

The simpler explanation: Sam started a wagon on a real townie (Bryan), Cyan (mafia teammate) joined, they got caught, Sam was lynched. Now Cyan is caught and counterclaims to survive.

Actually wait - Bryan claimed detective and the wagon moved off him. Then the table pivoted to Sam and Moxie. Sam was lynched. If Bryan were mafia and Sam was mafia, Bryan's fake claim would have redirected the lynch away from both of them... but Sam still got lynched. So the bussing didn't fully work if that was the plan.

Hmm, but the wagon moved to Sam partly because of the speed criticism from Josie/Michael/Ryan/Dylan, and partly because Bryan's claim made voting him bad EV. So the table organically moved to Sam.

Let me think about this differently. The key question is: who do I believe as the real detective?

I think I lean toward believing Cyan:
1. Cyan's counterclaim timing is correct (waited until D2 as table advised)
2. Cyan investigated Bryan N2 to test his claim - logical
3. Bryan claiming D1 under pressure is more suspicious
4. The bussing explanation (Sam sacrifice) is plausible for Bryan being mafia

But I'm not 100% sure. Let me think about what I should say.

I should be honest about my reasoning. I should also note that Cyan clearing me (Trae) doesn't automatically make me trust Cyan - a smart mafia could clear a townie to pocket their vote.

But overall, I think the evidence points more toward Bryan being mafia. Let me say that.

Actually, let me reconsider one more time. If Cyan is the real detective and found Bryan mafia, and I know I'm town (confirmed by Cyan's N1 investigation of me being innocent), then the mafia team was Sam + Bryan